ForexGen Strategies

Euro Rises Against US Dollar, Testing Key Resistance


The Euro pushed higher against the US Dollar overnight, testing as high as 1.4170 and set to challenge critical, multi-year support/resistance levels. The British Pound diverged from the single currency, losing its grip on the 1.47 mark. Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator and UK Housing Equity figures are on tap in European hours.

Key Overnight Developments

• Euro, British Pound Diverge Against the US Dollar

Critical Levels

The Euro pushed higher against the US Dollar overnight, testing as high as 1.4171 and then settling in a narrow range above 1.4140. It seems the bulls are determined for another run at key support-turned-resistance at an upward-sloping trend line that had guided EURUSD higher since 2002 and was broken to the downside in October. Still, our EURUSD Exchange Rate Forecast points to the likelihood of a bearish scenario through January.

The British Pound diverged from the single currency, losing its grip on the 1.47 mark late into the session and sinking to test below 1.4650.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Tumbling real estate values are expected to see the Bank of England’s Housing Equity Withdrawal measure fall -3.3 billion pounds in the third quarter, following the first negative reading in a decade in the three months through June. A negative figure means that Britons put 3.3 billion more into their homes (via mortgage payments, for example) than they were able to get back in borrowing against their value. Naturally, that’s 3.3 billion less that is available for consumption and investment, weighing on overall economic growth. House prices have fallen 10.2% through December since peaking in May according to Rightmove PLC, a firm listing for-sale properties online.

In Switzerland, the KOF Leading Indicator is expected to print negative for the second consecutive month in December, falling to the lowest in over 5 years. The metric is an index of six indicators of Swiss economic performance for the following six to nine months. The negative reading suggests the mountain nation will not see economic growth for much of the coming year.

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After High-Profile Start, SC Limps to End of 2008



Trials both communal and personal highlight a 2008 that for SC ends on a dark economic note

South Carolina started 2008 with a hand in shaping the nation's future. The year ends with the state battered by repercussions, from both within and beyond its borders.
Turmoil in the nation's housing market morphed into a crisis of credit and consumer confidence. Companies announced layoffs and the state's unemployment rate shot to the third-highest in the U.S. in November -- 183,000 were jobless as the holidays approached.

"The little people are suffering. It seems like the CEOs are walking away," Michael Jones, a 61-year-old former Army sergeant, as he applied for unemployment benefits earlier this month because his savings was drying up.
The state's drooping economy means fewer taxes to pay for the services expected from state and local governments, and trouble is in store for some schools and universities. State employees are losing pay through furloughs. For the state's low-income residents, programs that provide care for HIV patients, the terminally ill and the hungry are being slashed.
Economic forecasters believe it will get worse. They predict double-digit unemployment for 2009.

But in a year that for many ended with intensely personal economic travails, others had memories far more frightening.
A family in Anderson was slaughtered in April, and their teen son now stands accused of the murders. High schoolers in Chesterfield worried for their own safety this spring after authorities say a classmate planned to blow up the building.
A Hilton Head Island couple vanished in March and their former accountant committed suicide as suspicion fell on him. A boy in Sumter was gunned down as he and his family did the most innocent of activities: trick-or-treating on Halloween. Four people died and two musicians suffered burns when their private jet ran off the end of a Columbia runway in September and burst into flames.

There were moments when the state's dismay was communal, too.
Months after it opened, the $400 million Hard Rock Park filed for bankruptcy protection as the economy dashed the cheery predictions made before it opened. The owners now hope to sell it off.
The high price of gas this summer surely hurt the Myrtle Beach attraction. There was a sense of shared burden as drivers stood, cringing, in lines to pay $4 per gallon and then watched pumps run dry after hurricanes Gustav and Ike shut down refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. State prosecutors issued 37 subpoenas for price gouging and say the investigation continues.

Weather made life tough, especially in the Upstate, as a multiyear drought dragged on.
In Greenville, hundreds of suspected illegal immigrants were arrested in October and pointed toward deportation after an investigation into a poultry plant's hiring practices. The sweep that left the city's Spanish-speaking community wringing its hands left others wondering why local officials looked the other way for so long.
Dashboard cameras allowed a look into the working lives of South Carolina state troopers, and not everyone enjoyed the view. Footage showed a trooper striking a motorcycle with his cruiser; an officer not bothering to get out of his car as he chased a running suspect across the grounds of a populated apartment complex; a trooper striking a man with a shotgun after the suspect was subdued.
The heads of the state's Public Safety Department and Highway Patrol resigned in February. One trooper was acquitted of a federal charge in 2008, while a second awaits trial.

But the state also banded together to set the nation's course during the presidential primary season.
South Carolina's Republicans boosted John McCain on his path to the nomination, as the Arizona senator avenged his loss in the state to President George W. Bush in 2000. A week later, Democrats gave Barack Obama a resounding win and momentum the history-making candidate would never relinquish.
In all, the state hosted three debates between presidential contenders, and after vaulting Obama and McCain into a General Election showdown, a record 1.9 million state residents cast ballots in November.
But those days of presidential primaries are almost a year old. The focus now is on the economic troubles expected to cut a wider and deeper swath in the coming months.

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Types of Forex Orders


Multiple types of orders are available in the forex market. Bear in mind that not all order types are available at all online brokers, so add order types to your list of questions to ask your prospective forex broker.

Take-profit orders

Don’t you just love that name? An old market saying goes, “You can’t go broke taking profit.” Use take-profit orders to lock in gains when you have an open position in the market. If you’re short USD/JPY at 117.20, your take-profit order will be to buy back the position and be placed somewhere below that price, say at 116.80 for instance. If you’re long GBP/USD at 1.8840, your take-profit order will be to sell the position somewhere higher, maybe 1.8875.

Limit orders

A limit order is any order that triggers a trade at more favorable levels than the current market price. Think “Buy low, sell high.” If the limit order is to buy, it must be entered at a price below the current market price. If the limit order is to sell, it must be placed at a price higher than the current market price.

Stop-loss orders

Boo! Sound’s bad doesn’t it? Actually, stop-loss orders are critical to trading survival. The traditional stop-loss order does just that: It stops losses by closing out an open position that is losing money.

Use stop-loss orders to limit your losses if the market moves against your position. If you don’t, you’re leaving it up to the market, and that’s dangerous. Stop-loss orders are on the other side of the current price from take-profit orders, but in the same direction (in terms of buying or selling). If you’re long, your stop-loss order will be to sell, but at a lower price than the current market price.

If you’re short, your stop-loss order will be to buy, but at a higher price than the current market.

[ForexGen Demo Accounts Contest]


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What Does Scalping Mean?

Scalping is a trading strategy that the trader try to make many small profits with small price changes, the Scalper will place from dozens to hundreds trades in a single day because it’s believed that the small price moves are easier to catch than larger moves.
It based on an observation that the most of the price movements goes in the trader direction for a while of time before it goes in its trend direction!

In the Forex world a lot scalpers say “If I make a 20-25 pips per day by scalping the market and with a proper money management I might double my account balance every month”.
Theoretically, true! But what about the real? What about the risk of scalping the market?

Scalping risk:

While it seems profitable method when scalping the price movements, however the spread you pay when you open a trade makes the risk-reward more risky than the long term trading (trend trading).

For example if your broker charges you 5 pips spread for opening EURUSD position and your target is 10 pips and 10 pips stop loss; the price have to move 15 pips (5 pips of spread + 10 pips your target) to take the profit while it have to move only 5 pips (10 pips your stop loss - 5 pips of spread) and stop loss level will be reached.
So, the risk-reward ratio in this case is 2-1 which means a very dangerous and risky method to scalp!

Another risk in the Scalp is that one large loss could eliminate the many small gains that the trader has worked to obtain. So it needs a very good exit strategy to decrease this risk!

Why brokers hate scalping?

The most of brokers will not turn your trades with a market maker

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Dollar Edges Higher vs Euro, Pound, Yen


Dollar edges higher vs euro, pound, yen in light holiday-week trading

The dollar traded mixed against major currencies Tuesday in light holiday trading.
The 15-nation euro inched up to $1.3967 in late New York trading, up from $1.3958 late Monday, while the British pound traded down to $1.4735 from $1.4865.
The dollar also rose to 90.68 Japanese yen from 90.07.

A stream of dour economic data on U.S. housing and economic activity left the buck largely unscathed as the end of the year approaches, especially as economies abroad show pain as well.
The Commerce Department reiterated that gross domestic product in the third quarter fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. The estimate is unchanged from last month. Economists expect a sharper decline in the current quarter.

Two housing reports on Tuesday, one from the Commerce Department on new home sales and one from the National Association of Realtors on existing home sales, fell by more than expected. New home sales fell 2.9 percent, to the slowest pace in almost 18 years, in November. Home resales fell by 8.6 percent to a yearly rate of 4.49 million in November. Both reports noted double-digit declines in median sales price.

The Dow Jones industrials finished lower for the fifth straight day, falling 100 points to 8,419.49.
In Britain, meanwhile, the government said the economy shrank by 0.6 percent in the third quarter, more than had previously been thought. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates close to zero in 2009.
Cutting rates can undermine a currency as investors transfer assets elsewhere, looking for higher returns. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to a range of 0.25 to zero earlier this month. Few major economies now have rates above Britain's current 2 percent.
In other currencies, the dollar slipped to 1.2133 Canadian dollars from 1.2185, and fell to 1.0871 Swiss francs from 1.0916.

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British Pound And Euro Technical Outlook


British Pound Technical Outlook

The British Pound has found a short-term base against the US Dollar, holding highly-contested support near the psychologically significant 1.4700 mark. Its recent price formation likewise looks vaguely like an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and a break above 1.5500 would signal that a more medium term reversal is likely.

Shorter-term, the British Pound looks to challenge previous spike-highs at the psychologically significant 1.5000 mark.

Euro Technical Outlook

The Euro has stalled at significant resistance against the US Dollar, and we see further scope for Euro/US Dollar weakness through upcoming trade. After such dramatic US Dollar declines, we would expect to see similarly sharp corrections. A reversal at the pair’s 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of its 1.6040-1.2330 decline and 200-day Simple Moving Average signals further dramatic advances are unlikely.

The very short term shows that the Euro/US Dollar has thus far held short-term intraday lows of 1.3825, but a break below signals that a move towards previous lows near 1.3600 is likely.

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Qimonda Set For Euro325 Million Bailout




Troubled memory-chip maker Qimonda AG on Sunday secured a rescue package of euro325 million ($452 million) in loans from a German regional government, parent company Infineon and a Portuguese state bank.
The Economy Ministry in the German state of Saxony, where Qimonda has a major plant, said in a statement that it achieved a "breakthrough" when Portugal agreed to join the rescue package through its state investment bank. The company has a facility in Porto, Portugal.
Munich-based Qimonda will get a euro150 million loan from Saxony, euro75 million from Infineon Technologies AG and euro100 million from the Portuguese bank, according to the ministry, Qimonda and Infineon.

Qimonda said that it also expects to receive loan guarantees worth euro280 million from the German federal government and Saxony.
In return for the package, the company said it committed itself to further developing its manufacturing and research facilities in Porto and in Dresden, Saxony's state capital.
Qimonda said earlier this month that it may face bankruptcy if it fails to find new investors. Makers of computer memory chips have been hit hard by falling prices and an oversupply of the products.

Sunday's moves "allow Qimonda to complete its repositioning ... and re-establish its competitive position in the memory industry," as well as invest in new technology, chief executive Kin Wan Loh said.
Infineon spun off Qimonda in 2006 and still holds a 77.5-percent stake. Saxony initially called on Infineon to contribute euro150 million to the rescue package, but the parent company said last week it could not provide that much.
Qimonda, which has more than 12,000 workers, said in October it would cut 3,000 jobs in the U.S. and Germany and sell its stake in Inotera -- a joint venture with Taiwan's Nanya Technology Corp. -- to Micron Technology Inc. for $400 million.

[ForexGen Money Manager]

An individual who is responsible for the entire financial portfolio of another individual or another entity. A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.

Benefits of being a Money Manager with [ForexGen]:

* Providing three different commission sources.
* Weekly commission plan.
* Easy & fast commission withdrawals.
* Fixed percentage of the profits.
* P = k * D “P=Profit, k=Variable Parameter, D=Deposits”

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US Dollar Plummets as US 10-Year Treasury Yields Hit Record Lows


A massive flight to quality has left US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yields at their lowest levels on record—further emphasizing extreme risk aversion in global financial markets. Banks and other financial entities unwilling to lend to one another have desperately sought safe haven for funds, and US Government debt has largely been the instrument of choice for many investors. Such flows have not resulted in net demand for US Dollars, however, as we have actually seen the US currency fall substantially against major forex counterparts.

US Treasury Bond Yields Hit Record Low


The Euro/US Dollar pair has actually moved lock-step with 10-Year Treasury Bond prices through the past several weeks of trading. Bond prices move inversely to yield, and this chart shows us that falling Treasury yields have coincided with Euro/US Dollar gains. Whether or not this is a lasting shift remains to be seen, but record-low Treasury yields can intuitively hurt demand for the US Dollar.

US Treasury Bond and the US Dollar


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Euro Soars Against US Dollar

Euro Soars Against US Dollar - Is This a Trend Change or Retracement?

The Euro has registered some very impressive gains against the US dollar this week, adding nearly 5% in just the past two days. The pair is now re-testing the multi-year bullish trend line that had guided price action since 2002 and was broken to the downside at the beginning of October. This is the proverbial line in the sand: if the Euro manages to surpass this juncture, the bearish bias will be violated. However, the possibility remains that current EURUSD strength is corrective and the downtrend will resume following the re-test of support-turned-resistance.

EURUSD Spot (Weekly):



















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Forex Traders Push US Dollar to Key Support - Is the Correction Over?


The US Dollar has been punished by heavy selling pressure in recent days. The US Dollar Index, an average of the greenback's value against six top currencies, has now retraced 50% of the most recent leg of the rally starting in late September (see chart below). Support is being reinfoced by a key upward-sloping trend line that has guided USD higher since the multi-year down trend changed gears at historic lows in mid-July. This will be a formidable hurdle for US dollar bears to overcome, with any signs of exhaustion in downward momentum in the coming days opening the door for USD bulls to add to existing positions or initiate new ones.

US Dollar Index - Daily Chart


















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Wyoming, Montana Ski Resorts Adjust to Economy

Ski resorts in Wyoming and Montana see downturn in bookings; answer with deals

Wyoming and Montana ski resorts are rolling out deals to counter hard economic times that are cutting into their advance bookings.

Skiers heading to the three ski resorts in the Jackson Hole region of northwest Wyoming can get a free airline ticket with the purchase of three airfares.

The Whitefish Mountain Resort in northwest Montana is offering rental condos for half price through January.

Incentives are being offered at other resorts as well.

"I think what makes this year different is, of course, the economy, and the concern that people are really going to cut back on travel spending and so the packages this year are much more aggressive," Tim O'Donoghue, executive director of the Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce.

Nationwide, early sales and reservations figures for some destination ski resorts suggests the economy is putting a crimp on the $6 billion ski industry.

At Jackson Hole, Wyoming's leading destination ski area, advance bookings for December were off about 30 percent to 50 percent from last year, O'Donoghue said.

However, the trend lately is for people to book ski trips closer to the time when they actually travel, he said.

"The well-informed, experienced skiers are waiting longer to see what deals are available," O'Donoghue said.

Donnie Clapp, spokesman for Montana's Whitefish resort, said advance bookings were down less than 10 percent.

"We're feeling pretty good about it," Clapp said.

Whitefish received a big boost when it landed a group trip that is bringing some 420 college students from California.

"They usually go somewhere different every year," Clapp said. "They chose us this year."

There's encouraging signs for Jackson Hole, too.

Enplanements of air travelers is down only 16 percent, and reservations at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort's ski school and for private lessons are running about the same at last year.

In addition, Jackson Hole Mountain Resort is debuting a new, $32 million aerial tram next weekend that can carry up to 100 skiers in a car at a time. It is one of the few U.S. ski resorts with a large aerial tram.

"In the ski world it's big news," resort spokeswoman Anna Olson said.

But the key to any ski resort, in good economic times or bad, is the amount of snow on the hills.

Grand Targhee Resort in the Jackson Hole area was one of the few U.S. resorts to have all its lifts and terrain open by last Friday thanks to plentiful snowfall.

"Travelers will go skiing and snowboarding if the snow is there -- hands down despite what the economy is doing," Grand Targhee spokesman David Hudacsko, said.

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Canadian Dollar Forecasts Remain Gloomy on Shaky Fundamentals

A larger-than-expected Bank of Canada interest rate cut made the Canadian Dollar one of the worst performing G10 currencies on the week, but an outright tumble in the US Dollar left the USD/CAD marginally lower through Friday’s close. BoC officials surprised markets in lowering interest rates by a sizeable 75 basis points—signaling that domestic yields will likely fall harder than previously expected. Dismal economic data out of the US economy likewise dimmed Canadian economic outlook, and the Loonie continues to lose ground against major global counterparts on worsening fundamentals.

Fundamental Outlook for Canadian Dollar: Bearish

- Canadian Dollar tumbles on Bank of Canada interest rate cut
- DailyFX Analysts express theirviews on the Canadian Dollar

Forecasts for further deterioration in Canadian economic conditions will likely keep pressure on the Canadian dollar through the foreseeable future. Whether or not it is able to recover against the US dollar is another matter entirely, however; similarly gloomy outlook for the US economy leaves its currency in a similarly disadvantaged position. Short-term price action in the USD/CAD currency pair may subsequently depend on the trajectory in Crude Oil prices; the 50-day correlation between the USD/CAD and oil prices currently trades at its strongest levels in at least 10 years.

The Canadian economic calendar is otherwise unlikely to spark major moves in the USD/CAD, but traders should watch out for any surprises surrounding the highly-anticipated US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The US central bank is expected cut interest rates to fresh record-lows in Tuesday announcement; the key question is how low rates can and will go. The ramifications of the rate decision will almost certainly be felt in all US dollar pairs and, importantly for the USD/CAD, in Crude Oil prices. It is difficult to predict how the Canadian dollar will react, but we expect significant volatility out of all US dollar-denominated forex pairs through the week’s price action. - DR

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Stocks Advance Amid Hope For Automaker Rescue




Stocks advance on hopes for automaker rescue as Treasury says it will support Detroit

Wall Street put on another impressive show of resilience Friday, rebounding from an early sell-off to end higher after the government said it would assist troubled U.S. automakers.

The market, which just a week earlier withstood a terrible November employment report, managed its advance after the Treasury Department said it was prepared to assist the nation's Big Three automakers. The Dow Jones industrial average had fallen more than 200 points in early trading after the Senate had killed a $14 billion bailout package for the companies.

"It's hard to say if this is indeed the beginning of a recovery, but it could be," said Matt King, chief investment officer of Bell Investment Advisors. "It seems like the past few Fridays we've ended the week on a positive note."

A week ago, the market shook off the Labor Department's report that the economy lost a larger than expected 533,000 jobs in November. Investors are showing a greater tolerance for bad economic and corporate news, and many analysts believe that the market may have reached a bottom after the horrific selling of the past three months.

Since its Nov. 20 low, the Dow is up 14.3 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 is up 16.9 percent and the Nasdaq composite index has seen a gain of 17.1 percent. Still, from their October 2007 highs, the Dow remains down by 39.1 percent and the S&P 500 index is down 44 percent. The Nasdaq, which peaked at the start of the decade, is down 46.1 percent from its recent top.

Many analysts believe Wall Street is growing more confident that the government's steps to stimulate the economy, including its $700 billion bank bailout program, will work. And so news that the Treasury Department could help prevent bankruptcy filings and job losses in the auto industry helped turn the market around Friday.

"Things are looking a little bit brighter after they made those announcements," said Anthony Conroy, managing director and head trader for BNY ConvergEx Group.

General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have said they could run out of cash within weeks without government help. Ford Motor Co., which would also be eligible for aid under the bill, has said it has enough cash to make it through next year.

Some of the market's moves Friday were with an eye toward next week's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. The two-day meeting begins Monday; the Fed is widely expected to lower its key federal funds rate half a percentage point to 0.5 percent, another step by the government toward lifting the economy out of recession.

The Dow rose 64.59, or 0.75 percent, to 8,629.68. The Dow tumbled 196 points Thursday as worries intensified that the auto bill would stall in the Senate.

The S&P 500 index rose 6.14, or 0.70 percent, to 879.73, and the Nasdaq rose 32.84, or 2.18 percent, to 1,540.72.

For the week, the Dow ended with a loss of fewer than 6 points, or 0.07 percent. The S&P 500 rose 0.42 percent, while the Nasdaq advanced 2.08 percent because of Friday's gains. For the year, the Dow is down 34.9 percent, the S&P 500 is down 40.1 percent and the Nasdaq is off 41.9 percent.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 17.22, or 3.82 percent, to 468.43 Friday.

The number of stocks advancing outpaced decliners by 3-to-2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated trading volume came to 5.12 billion shares compared with 5.39 billion Thursday.

Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.58 percent from 2.63 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill rose to 0.04 percent from 0.02 percent late Thursday. The bill has been in great demand because of the safety it offers investors.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices declined.

Light, sweet crude fell $1.70 to settle at $46.28 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The day's economic news showed continuing weakness, but, as it has done with a steady stream of downbeat data in recent weeks, the market shrugged.

The Labor Department said wholesale prices sank in November for the fourth straight month, raising deflation fears. The Producer Price Index fell a greater-than-expected 2.2 percent as prices for gasoline and other energy prices retreated. That followed a record 2.8 percent drop in October.

Businesses also slashed inventories in October by the largest amount in five years. The Commerce Department said businesses cut what was on shelves and back lots by 0.6 percent, triple the 0.2 percent decline economists expected.

The Commerce Department said retail sales fell by 1.8 percent in November. The decline was less than the 1.9 percent slide economists expected but the drop marked the fifth straight monthly decline -- a period of weakness never before seen on the government's retail sales records.

Next week's readings include the Consumer Price Index and housing starts for November.

The week also brings quarterly results from Wall Street's brokerages, which have been badly hurt by the stock market's tumble, the slowdown in the economy and the freeze-up in the credit markets.

GM ended down 18 cents, or 4.4 percent, at $3.94 after declining as much as 37 percent in the session. Ford rose 14 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $3.04. Chrysler isn't publicly traded.

But even a potential lifeline for Detroit couldn't ease all the concerns about job losses. Bank of America Corp. said late Thursday it expected to cut as many as 35,000 jobs over the next three years, including some from investment bank Merrill Lynch & Co., which it agreed to buy in September. Bank of America rose 2 cents to $14.93.

Investors grappled with further prospects of diminished confidence in Wall Street. Late Thursday, Wall Street veteran Bernard L. Madoff was arrested on a securities fraud charge. Madoff, who 18 years ago was chairman of the Nasdaq stock market, was accused of running a phony investment business that lost at least $50 billion and that he called a "giant Ponzi scheme," prosecutors said.

"It's not a happy day when you see a $50 billion fraud," said Ken Mayland, president of research firm ClearView Economics. "Things like that will just erode the public's confidence in the market."

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 5.56 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.47 percent, Germany's DAX index slid 2.18 percent, and France's CAC-40 declined 2.80 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week down 5.74, or 0.07 percent, at 8,629.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished up 3.66, or 0.42 percent, at 879.73. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week up 31.41, or 2.08 percent, at 1,540.72.

The Russell 2000 index finished the week up 7.34, or 1.59 percent, at 468.43.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended at 8,800.18, up 63.04 points, or 0.72 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 14,993.96.

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Oil Prices Near $48 a Barrel as Dollar Falls


Weak dollar outweighs IEA report on weak demand; oil prices near $48


Oil prices rose 10 percent Thursday as the value of the dollar sank further and investors dumped money into crude markets.

The falling dollar, which makes commodities like oil more attractive, outweighed a new report from the International Energy Agency, which said energy demand is sliding sharply.

Crude prices have spiked ahead of next week's meeting of OPEC, which is expected to slash production.

"Probably the biggest factor right now is financials," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with Alaron Trading Corp. "The market is worried that all these bailouts ... means we're going to be printing a lot more money, which makes the dollar weaker. That's really supporting the price."

Analysts cautioned reading too much into oil's rally. The price is up nearly 18 percent from last Friday's settlement price. After all, you don't have to look far to be reminded of the global economic downturn and its effect on crude consumption.

Paris-based IEA said Thursday that global oil demand will shrink this year for the first time since 1983. The IEA cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2008 by 350,000 barrels a day to 85.8 million barrels a day, down 0.2 percent from 2007.

The IEA also cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2009, saying it would increase by just 0.5 percent next year, to 86.3 million barrels a day. That's 200,000 barrels a day less than its estimate last month.

"It's premature to say the lows have been placed," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. "If they don't put an auto package together soon, if the stock market gets slammed 300 or 400 points, we could shrug off the currency factor pretty quickly."

Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose $4.46 to settle at $47.98 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising to near $49 earlier in the session.

Prices at the pump, however, continue to plummet. Gasoline prices fell 1.9 cents overnight to a national average of $1.664 per gallon, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. That's 55.6 cents a gallon below what it was a month ago and $1.326 below where it was a year ago.

The U.S. dollar lost ground against other major currencies, making commodities like oil more attractive to investors as a hedge against inflation and dollar weakness.

The euro rose to $1.3227 on Thursday from $1.2988 late Wednesday in New York, while the dollar fell to 91.18 Japanese yen from 92.63 yen in the previous session.

Focus has remained on comments coming from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of global crude supply. The group has signaled it plans to slash output quotas at a meeting Dec. 17 in Algeria.

Many analysts expect production cuts of as much as 2 million barrels a day, which would match the combined reductions of two previous output cuts earlier this year.

Victor Shum, energy analyst at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, said indications from Saudi Arabia -- the biggest oil producer in OPEC -- that it would cut production going into January boosted hopes of a significant output reduction.

Russia's plan to coordinate production levels with other non-OPEC producers also supported prices. Energy Minister Sergey Shmatko said Russia would soon make an announcement of its intentions with OPEC.

On Thursday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggested that Russia is ready to work with OPEC.

"I'd like to say that we are ready to defend our revenue base -- oil, gas. Moreover, such defensive measures could be connected with a reduction in oil output, and with the participation in the existing organization of producers," he was quoted as saying by RIA-Novosti and Interfax.

Shum said OPEC production cuts, which had failed in the past to curb plummeting oil prices, would not result in a rally but would stabilize the market and prevent any further downward spiral.

"There is a lot of bad economic news and if there is no meaningful cut by OPEC, oil pricing will come under a lot of downward pressure," he said.

What's more, he added, the success of any output cut in stabilizing the oil price will depend on how closely OPEC members comply with it.

In two separate announcements, OPEC said it would cut production by 2 million barrels a day.

OPEC's November production was well above quotas agreed to by member states, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

OPEC's 13 members pumped an average of 31.38 million barrels a day last month, a decline of only 880,000 barrels from the October level.

Oil prices have fallen 70 percent since peaking at $147.27 in July. After hitting $40.50 a barrel last week, some oil traders believe that if the market has not bottomed out, it is close to doing so.

"While we maintain our bearish bias, we are of the opinion the market has found a range in between the low $40s on the bottom and the mid $50s on the high end," oil trader and analyst Stephen Schork said in a report Thursday.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures jumped nearly 11 cents to settle at $1.0786 a gallon. Heating oil gained 10 cents to settle at $1.5066 a gallon and natural gas for January delivery fell 11.8 cents to $5.568 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, January Brent crude soared $4.99 to settle at $47.35 on the ICE Futures exchange.

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As you are trading

As you are trading with [FOREXGEN] Platform… When the actual price crosses all three indicators, you enter your trade, long or short. If the price crosses down through the 100 EMA, enter short, if the price crosses up through the 100 EMA go long. Make sure that you book a 5-10 pip profit. That is a $50-$100 dollar profit on a regular account, and more if you bought more lots. Don’t try to hang on to you winning position to long, because the price can whipsaw back and you can lose.

Take your 5-10 pip profit as soon as you can. Here is an example on the 1 min charts:
Notice that at 10:30 EST you could have entered USD/JPY long (big circle) when the price crossed up through the 100 EMA and at 10:45 you could have closed your position (little circle) and made a 10 pip profit. Then again the price crossed back down the 100 EMA at 11:30 EST. You could have sold the Yen short (big circle) and then ten minutes later made another 10 pip profit. (Little circle)

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