04 December, 2008
An ECB Rate Cut Would Justify Bearish Technical Outlook
The ECB is expecting to cut their benchmark rate by 50 bps today
according to a Bloomberg survey. However, the slew of dour financial
data that has cross the wires recently including a record low reading
in the service sector and a 0.8% decline in retail sales, has raised
hopes for a deeper cut.
Fundamental Outlook
The
ECB is expecting to cut their benchmark rate by 50 bps today according
to a Bloomberg survey. However, the slew of dour financial data that
has cross the wires recently including a record low reading in the
service sector and a 0.8% decline in retail sales, has raised hopes for
a deeper cut. Therefore, if the central bank meets expectations we
could see bullish price reaction as it would signal that the MPC plans
to continue their measured approach to monetary policy despite other
central banks aggressive easing. President Trichet’s comments following
the announcement will give the clearest signal to future bias and may
have the biggest influence on longer term price direction. Technical’s
are calling for an initial move higher followed by a larger decline
with a target below 1.2330.
Technical Outlook
I
am sticking with the triangle pattern. Triangles consist of 5 waves,
a-b-c-d-e. If a triangle is underway, then wave e is underway now
(possibly complete at 1.2772) and will end as a spike above 1.2772.
Resistance begins at 1.28 and extends as high as 1.30. Rallies into
this zone should be sold.
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