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Euro Rises Against US Dollar, Testing Key Resistance


The Euro pushed higher against the US Dollar overnight, testing as high as 1.4170 and set to challenge critical, multi-year support/resistance levels. The British Pound diverged from the single currency, losing its grip on the 1.47 mark. Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator and UK Housing Equity figures are on tap in European hours.

Key Overnight Developments

• Euro, British Pound Diverge Against the US Dollar

Critical Levels

The Euro pushed higher against the US Dollar overnight, testing as high as 1.4171 and then settling in a narrow range above 1.4140. It seems the bulls are determined for another run at key support-turned-resistance at an upward-sloping trend line that had guided EURUSD higher since 2002 and was broken to the downside in October. Still, our EURUSD Exchange Rate Forecast points to the likelihood of a bearish scenario through January.

The British Pound diverged from the single currency, losing its grip on the 1.47 mark late into the session and sinking to test below 1.4650.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Tumbling real estate values are expected to see the Bank of England’s Housing Equity Withdrawal measure fall -3.3 billion pounds in the third quarter, following the first negative reading in a decade in the three months through June. A negative figure means that Britons put 3.3 billion more into their homes (via mortgage payments, for example) than they were able to get back in borrowing against their value. Naturally, that’s 3.3 billion less that is available for consumption and investment, weighing on overall economic growth. House prices have fallen 10.2% through December since peaking in May according to Rightmove PLC, a firm listing for-sale properties online.

In Switzerland, the KOF Leading Indicator is expected to print negative for the second consecutive month in December, falling to the lowest in over 5 years. The metric is an index of six indicators of Swiss economic performance for the following six to nine months. The negative reading suggests the mountain nation will not see economic growth for much of the coming year.

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Euro Rallies from Bottom of Range



Euro Rallies from Bottom of Range; Where from Here?

Euro / dollar resistance should be strong in the 1.28-1.30 zone. It is possible that a rally to there completes a triangle that began at the end of October. The next move would be lower, below 1.2330.

































 

 

 

One can make both a bullish and bearish argument for the euro / dollar going forward. From the bearish perspective, the euro / dollar could still drop below 1.2330 in a 5th wave terminal thrust from a triangle, which is in its final stages. The triangle labeling is what I am showing this morning. In the case of the triangle, wave e of the advance should end this week. Resistance begins at 1.28 and extends as high as 1.30. From the bullish perspective, the rallies from 1.2330 could be a series of 1st and 2nd waves. While not pretty, the count is valid and most big rallies begin after formation of a large base.
















 

Staying bearish the USDJPY has proved a wise decision although the decline over the last month has been choppy. As long as price remains below 96 (below the resistance line from early October), bearish potential is significant (below 80).
















 

The rally from 1.4554 is probably wave 4 of (3) (within a 5 wave decline from 2.1160). Resistance does not begin until 1.60 and there is potential for a move back to 1.67 (38.2% Fibonacci and October 30 high). 1.4554 should remain intact if a larger rally (even if just corrective) has started.















 

 

Higher highs and higher lows since the March low favors bulls longer term. Near term, the decline from the top side of the channel is impulsive and the rally from 1.1828 is corrective. Expect weakness below 1.1828 in the next several weeks.















 

 

The rally from just below 1.15 is in 5 waves and could be a truncated 5th wave. If so, then a correction back to at least 1.15 and possibly lower is underway now. The drop from 1.2993 to 1.2120 is in 5 waves, which is bearish. Price should remain below 1.2993.














 

 

 

There remains potential for a large recovery back to the mid .70s given the 5 wave drop from the top (waves a and b of an a-b-c correction would be close to complete). Bulls may attempt to ‘pick’ this bottom given that the AUDUSD has held above the October low.

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