29 December, 2008
Tumbling
real estate values are expected to see the Bank of England’s Housing
Equity Withdrawal measure fall -3.3 billion pounds in the third
quarter, following the first negative reading in a decade in the three
months through June. A negative figure means that Britons put 3.3
billion more into their homes (via mortgage payments, for example) than
they were able to get back in borrowing against their value. Naturally,
that’s 3.3 billion less that is available for consumption and
investment, weighing on overall economic growth.
House prices have fallen 10.2% through December since peaking in May
according to Rightmove PLC, a firm listing for-sale properties online.
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03 December, 2008
Euro Rallies from Bottom of Range; Where from Here?
Euro
/ dollar resistance should be strong in the 1.28-1.30 zone. It is
possible that a rally to there completes a triangle that began at the
end of October. The next move would be lower, below 1.2330.

One
can make both a bullish and bearish argument for the euro / dollar
going forward. From the bearish perspective, the euro / dollar could
still drop below 1.2330 in a 5th wave terminal thrust from a triangle,
which is in its final stages. The triangle labeling is what I am
showing this morning. In the case of the triangle, wave e of the
advance should end this week. Resistance begins at 1.28 and extends as
high as 1.30. From the bullish perspective, the rallies from 1.2330
could be a series of 1st and 2nd waves. While not pretty, the count is
valid and most big rallies begin after formation of a large base.
Staying
bearish the USDJPY has proved a wise decision although the decline over
the last month has been choppy. As long as price remains below 96
(below the resistance line from early October), bearish potential is
significant (below 80).
The
rally from 1.4554 is probably wave 4 of (3) (within a 5 wave decline
from 2.1160). Resistance does not begin until 1.60 and there is
potential for a move back to 1.67 (38.2% Fibonacci and October 30
high). 1.4554 should remain intact if a larger rally (even if just
corrective) has started.
Higher
highs and higher lows since the March low favors bulls longer term.
Near term, the decline from the top side of the channel is impulsive
and the rally from 1.1828 is corrective. Expect weakness below 1.1828
in the next several weeks.
The
rally from just below 1.15 is in 5 waves and could be a truncated 5th
wave. If so, then a correction back to at least 1.15 and possibly lower
is underway now. The drop from 1.2993 to 1.2120 is in 5 waves, which is
bearish. Price should remain below 1.2993.
There
remains potential for a large recovery back to the mid .70s given the 5
wave drop from the top (waves a and b of an a-b-c correction would be
close to complete). Bulls may attempt to ‘pick’ this bottom given that
the AUDUSD has held above the October low.
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