16 December, 2008
Forex Traders Push US Dollar to Key Support - Is the Correction Over?
The US Dollar has been punished by heavy selling pressure in recent days. The US Dollar Index, an average of the greenback's value against six top currencies, has now retraced 50% of the most recent leg of the rally starting in late September (see chart below). Support is being reinfoced by a key upward-sloping trend line that has guided USD higher since the multi-year down trend changed gears at historic lows in mid-July. This will be a formidable hurdle for US dollar bears to overcome, with any signs of exhaustion in downward momentum in the coming days opening the door for USD bulls to add to existing positions or initiate new ones.
US Dollar Index - Daily Chart
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28 November, 2008
ForexGen | US Dollar Under Pressure
US Dollar Under Pressure As Risk Sentiment Pushes Higher (Euro Open)
The Euro climbed steadily higher overnight and the British Pound was not far behind as top Asian stock markets pushed higher despite a swath of dismal Japanese economic data. Equity index futures in Europe and the US point higher, suggesting the US dollar is likely to remain on the defensive.
Key Overnight Developments
• Japanese Economic Indicators Continue to Sink Lower
• Euro, Pound Push Higher in Thin Holiday Trading
Critical Levels
The Euro climbed steadily higher overnight, topping the 1.29 once again to reach as high as 1.2956 before correcting into the 1.2930s. The British Pound was a bit late to the party: sterling spent most of the session in a well-defined 30-pip range but managed to pick up steam late into Asian market hours to retake the 1.54 level.
Asia Session Highlights
Recession was on full display in the barrage of Japanese economic data that hit the tape overnight. While the Jobless Rate declined to 3.7% in October, it was hardly an improvement: by definition, the metric measures those looking for work but are not able to find it. The improvement in the headline figure this time around occurred because people stopped looking and thereby were not included in the count. Indeed, the ratio of available vacancies to seeking applicants dropped to 0.80, the lowest in over four years. Businesses are clearly cutting back as global demand dwindles: Industrial Production slowed -7.1% in the year to October, a record low. With firms scaling back their operations and trimming staff, it is no wonder that Household Spending declined again in October, down -3.3% from the preceding month, while the annualized Retail Trade metric declined to the lowest in 15 months. As economists predicted, the sluggish pace of economic activity has dampened inflation, with the Consumer Price Index registering at just 1.7% in October. The pace of price growth has declined a hefty 27% since peaking with commodity prices in July.
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