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Oil falls below $54 as rising oil inventories, bad economic data point to falling US demand

Oil prices fell below $54 a barrel Thursday as dismal U.S. economic data and rising crude inventories outweighed the possibility of production cuts by OPEC and Russia.
By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for January delivery was down $1.19 to $53.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Markets in the United States are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, but electronic trading on the Nymex continues.
The dollar's weakening against other major currencies helped the Nymex contract recover from a low of $52.62 earlier in the session. Investors tend to increase their holdings in commodities like oil when the dollar falls and as a hedge against inflation.
In London, January Brent crude fell 65 cents to $53.27 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Prices have hovered just above three-year lows this week as bad economic news painted a bleak picture of U.S. demand for crude.
The Commerce Department on Wednesday said orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in two years. The 6.2 percent drop was more than double the 3 percent decline economists expected.
The department also said Americans cut their spending in October by the largest amount since the 2001 terrorist attacks. Consumer spending plunged by 1 percent last month, worse than the 0.9 percent decline that had been expected.
The fall in consumer spending has shown up in rising oil and gasoline inventories. For the week ended Nov. 21, crude stocks jumped by 7.3 million barrels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in a weekly report Wednesday. Analysts had expected a boost of only 400,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels. Analysts expected stockpiles to rise by only 300,000 barrels
"It looks like $50 is a support level," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. "But when it gets up to $54, people take profits. No one wants to get too bullish."
Prices have fluctuated between about $50 and $54 a barrel this week as investors grapple with the impact the global economic slowdown will have on crude demand.
The Nymex contract rose $3.67 overnight to settle at $54.44 on expectations China's biggest interest rate cut in 11 years -- and the fourth in three months -- will boost growth and demand for oil in the world's second-largest economy.
"People are still confused about the overall global economic situation," Rigby said. "Traders were looking for supportive news, so they looked to the China rate cuts."
"But for the next few months, everyone is going to be worried about the U.S. economy since it's still the largest in the world."

The dollar weakened Wednesday, helping to limit oil's losses. By the afternoon in Europe, the euro was worth $1.2921, up from $1.2899 on Wednesday, while the British pound rose to $1.5446 from $1.5350 in the previous session.
The dollar also retreated against the Japanese currency, to 95.41 yen from 95.65 yen on Wednesday.
Expectations of a production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has helped support prices. OPEC, which accounts for 40 percent of global supply, will hold an informal meeting Saturday in Cairo and an official meeting Dec. 17 in Algeria.
Some OPEC members, such as Venezuela, have called for the group to reduce output quotas by 1 million barrels a day at the Cairo meeting, while OPEC President Chakib Khelil has said the organization needs more time to evaluate the effect of previous production cuts.
The group cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day last month.

"I wouldn't be surprised if they announce a cut this Saturday," Rigby said. "Anything they can do to get prices back up, they will. It will have to be between 500,000 and 1 million to get the traders interested."
Investors will also be eyeing Russia to see if the oil exporter joins OPEC in cutting output. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said this week his county will support any production cut OPEC makes.
"They may talk about it, but I'd be surprised if they actually did it," Rigby said. "Russia wants all the benefits of what OPEC does to boost prices, but I don't know if they really want to cut their production and their revenue."
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell half a penny to $1.1750 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 3.07 cents to $1.706 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery slid 9.7 cents to $6.781 per 1,000 cubic feet.

ForexGen Trading ( Profit/Loss )

The differential indicator is an indicator used to identify the profit/loss that would have been realized if any trader submitted multiple positions at the same time.

The indicator shows the rise and fall of the profit of positions opened at the red vertical line through a red graph line in a certain interval of time starting from the time of opening the positions and reaching to the current time, where each point is the total profit of opened positions at this time.

Impact of global crisis on China deepening, official warns job losses could fuel instability

China's top economic planner warned Thursday that the impact of the global financial crisis is worsening and said rising job losses could fuel instability.

Beijing announced its biggest interest rate cut in 11 years on Wednesday to boost consumer and company spending, reflecting its growing urgency about reviving growth as it launches a multibillion-dollar stimulus package.

"This crisis is spreading all over the world and its impact on China's economy is deepening," Zhang Ping, chairman of the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission, said at a news conference. He said economic indicators for November were showing an "even faster decline," though he gave no details.

China's economic growth is expected to fall to about 9 percent this year, down from last year's 11.9 percent. That would be the fastest of any major economy, but Chinese leaders worry about possible unrest as unemployment rises, especially in export industries where factories are shutting down as global demand plummets.

"Excessive production halts and closing of enterprises will cause massive unemployment, which will lead to instability," Zhang said.

The 1.08 percentage-point cut in China's key one-year lending rate on Wednesday -- China's biggest rate cut since 1997 and the fourth in three months -- is "one of the essential measures to stimulate our economic growth," Zhang said.

Zhang said the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion), two-year stimulus package announced Nov. 9 should add about 1 percentage point to China's growth rate. That was below the 2 percentage point increase forecast by independent analysts.

Zhang said Beijing will take steps to boost growth and ensure the economy continues to create jobs. But he did not respond to a question about whether Beijing is planning to enact additional stimulus plans.

A state newspaper reported last weekend that Zhang's agency is working on an additional stimulus package that is meant to supplement the Nov. 9 package with more spending on health, education and other social programs.

The main stimulus package calls for insulating China from the global downturn by injecting money into the economy through higher spending on construction of airports, highways and other projects. It is meant to spur domestic consumption.

The cut in the one-year lending rate to 5.58 percent, effective Thursday, is aimed at encouraging consumers and businesses to borrow and spend, which is seen as a more effective way to fuel growth than government spending.

The stimulus package includes 1.8 trillion yuan ($263 billion) in spending on airports, highways and other, 370 billion yuan ($54 billion) to improve infrastructure in the poor countryside and 350 billion ($51 billion) for environmental projects, according to Zhang.

It also includes 280 billion yuan ($41 billion) for construction of low-income housing and 40 billion yuan ($5.8 billion) for health and education programs, Zhang said.

Zhang said the government is working on how local governments will pay for their share of the stimulus spending. The central government is to supply 1.2 trillion yuan ($175 billion) of the total stimulus spending, with the rest coming from lower-level governments and state companies.

ForexGen Live Accounts Contest

Trade, Compete, and Win - Begins the 1st of Every Month!

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FTC withdraws support for 'flawed' test used to measure tar, nicotine levels in cigarettes


Now the FTC has dropped the test, known as the Cambridge Filter Method, like a hot rock.

The commission has rescinded guidance it issued 42 years ago, saying the test method is flawed. It also said the resulting marketing touting tar and nicotine levels could cause consumers to believe that lighter cigarettes were safer.

As a result, future advertising that lists tar levels for cigarettes won't be able to use terms such as "by FTC method."

"Our action today ensures that tobacco companies may not wrap their misleading tar and nicotine ratings in a cloak of government sponsorship," said Commissioner Jon Leibowitz. "Simply put, the FTC will not be a smokescreen for tobacco companies' shameful marketing practices."
The commission rescinded the guidance by a 4-0 vote.

Under the current system, cigarettes with a tar rate above 15 milligrams per cigarette are commonly referred to by the industry as "full flavor." Cigarettes with a tar rating of less than 15 milligrams are referred to as "low" or "light." Cigarettes with a tar rate below 6 are described as "ultra low" or "ultra light."

The National Cancer Institute found that changes in cigarette design reduced the amount of tar and nicotine measured by smoking machines using the Cambridge Filter Method. However, there was no evidence those changes reduced disease for smokers. The machine doesn't take into account the way smokers adjust their behavior, such as taking more or deeper puffs to maintain nicotine levels.

"The most important aspect of this decision is that it says to consumers that tobacco industry claims relating to tar and nicotine are at best flawed and most likely misleading," said Matthew Myers, president of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

The commission said it originally believed in the 1960s that giving consumers uniform, standardized information about tar and nicotine yields of cigarettes would help them make informed decisions about cigarettes. At the time, most public health officials believed that reducing the amount of tar in a cigarette could reduce a smoker's risk of lung cancer. However, that premise is no longer valid.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., introduced legislation this year that would prohibit companies from making claims based on data derived from the FTC's testing method, but the bill did not make it to the full Senate for a vote.

"Tobacco companies can no longer rely on the government to back up a flawed testing method that tricks smokers into thinking these cigarettes deliver less tar and nicotine," Lautenberg said.

One FTC commissioner, Pamela Jones Harbor, urged Congress to approve the regulation of tobacco by the Food and Drug Administration. The bill would authorize government scientists to track, analyze and regulate the components of cigarettes.

Tobacco companies have stated clearly over the years that there is no such thing as a safe cigarette. In a statement, Philip Morris USA, the nation's largest tobacco company, said it remains committed to working with the FTC and other federal authorities to identify and adopt testing that improves on the Cambridge method.

The FTC noted that all four major domestic cigarette makers told commissioners the 1966 guidance should be retained until a replacement test method was approved.

ForexGen Trading Optimizer

The Trading Optimizer's main functionality is to create relations between groups of pairs and finding the best combinations that may produces the best profit in the minimum time possible, this process is performed by sophisticated -state of the art- algorithms which is based on the classification and clustering of correlated pairs resulting in simulating all possible runs in history to get the best combinations.

The trading optimizer inputs are the pairs’ symbols. While, its outputs are the combinations of the pairs that reached the most expected profit in the history

US Dollar Tumbles as Q3 GDP Falls 0.5% Amidst Sharpest Contraction in Consumption Since 1980

The US dollar fell sharply across the majors as US data was broadly disappointing, adding to the pile of evidence suggesting that the nation is in the midst of recession.

It seems that the announcement of yet another Federal Reserve lending facility - this time to support consumer and small business loans - and additional bailout measures for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae totaling $800 billion didn’t encourage investors. Instead, traders focused on the revision of US GDP for the third quarter down to -0.5 percent compared to the advance reading of -0.3 percent, which signals the worst US economic slowdown in seven years. The decline was led by a 3.7 percent drop in personal consumption, which marks the sharpest contraction since 1980, as the major deterioration of the US labor markets, stagnant wage growth, and a reduction in the availability of credit takes its toll. Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index tumbled 16.55 percent during the third quarter, which is the worst decline since recordkeeping began in 1988. On the other hand, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index climbed to 44.9 in November from a record low of 38.8. However, since this latest result is still the second-lowest since 1974, the rise didn’t inspire too much confidence of a rebound in consumer sentiment.

There was something encouraging about today’s dollar decline: the moves suggested that fundamentals are starting to play a role in forex market price action once again. Indeed, there are signs emerging that the financial markets are stabilizing a bit since risk trends have lost some influence on the greenback. Previously, any sort of losses in equities would trigger gains for the US dollar amidst flight-to-quality, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely ending the day higher and the greenback gaining 0.85 percent versus the euro and 1.98 percent against the British pound, it is clear that this relationship has faded a bit. It remains to be seen if this trend will hold, but with upcoming US economic data likely to be disappointing, downside risks may linger for the US dollar.

US Durable Goods Orders are forecasted to have dropped 2.7 percent in October and excluding transportation is anticipated to fall negative for the second consecutive month. Indeed, Boeing orders - a good leading indicator of this headline reading - slumped in October to 14, down from 41 in September. Meanwhile, Personal Income growth during the month of October is anticipated to rise a tepid 0.1 percent while Personal Spending is expected to fall by the most since September 2001 at a rate of 1 percent. Such results would only create additional potential for fourth quarter GDP to be just as disappointing as the third quarter readings, and will likewise lead to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by as many as 50 basis points during their next meeting on December 15-16.

ForexGen Trading Signals

Dash Board indicator

Dash board is an assisting tool that makes strategies combinations where its calculations depend on volumes and correlations between strategies including a function that weights the indicators’ signal depending on strategies based on trend, oscillators, bill Williams, volumes and custom indicator; it gets the average signal among all the strategies over a specific time frame. It shows the buy/sell signals by different strengths in the short, middle and long periods:

- Short strength expected results may take from 2 to 8 hours to produce profit and the expected gain may reach average 20 to 30 pips.

- Middle strength expected results may take from 8 to 24 hours to produce profit and the expected gain may reach an average of 30 to 60 pips.

- Long strength expected results may take from 1 to 5 days to produce profit and the expected gain may reach average 60 to 30 pips.

Indicator features:

- History mode feature that allows traders to get the dash board indications for any point in history.

- The ability to show or hide all strategies.

- The ability to add or remove any strategy from Dash Board calculations.

- Assigning weights for each strategy in Dash Board calculations.

- The ability to store Dash Board values in files.

Dash Board for all indicators

Dashboard for all is an assisting tool that includes 27 currency pairs, it allows traders to see the CIF values for the selected currencies on one chart. It represents the buy/sell signal by a percentage of different strengths (short, long, and middle). The dashboard for all calculations for each currency pair depends on, volumes and correlations between strategies including a function that weights the indicators’ signal depending on strategies based on trend, oscillators, bill Williams, volumes and custom indicator; it gets the average signal among all the strategies over a specific time frame. Dash board for all indicators includes a history mode parameter which allows the trader to get the dash board indication for a historical point for many currencies at any time frame.

The euro and British pound surged higher on Tuesday, breaking above key resistance points.

More specifically, EUR/USD managed to push above 1.30, a level that has prevented previous recovery attempts in recent weeks. Meanwhile, GBP/USD rallied above the 38.2% fib of 1.6671-1.4557 at 1.5361, which also provided support in the past on October 24, October 27, and November 11. The gains in the euro came despite the fact the final reading of German GDP for the third quarter fell in line with expectations at a rate of 0.5 percent, confirming that Europe’s largest economy is experiencing its worst recession in at least 12 years.

Looking ahead to the next 24 hours, the second reading of third quarter UK GDP is anticipated to confirm that the economy is experiencing its worst slowdown since 1990-1991. Indeed, the advanced results showed that GDP fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, following a complete stagnation. This deterioration comes as the result of a combination of restrictive monetary policy in the UK through mid-2008 along with the collapse of the housing sector and weakening domestic and foreign demand. If GDP happens to fall more than forecasted, the news could weigh on the British pound as it would add to speculation that the Bank of England will cut rates aggressively next week.

However, if the data meets expectations, there may be little reaction in the forex markets, allowing the British pound to continue its ascent toward 1.5850.

ForexGen Trading Station

ForexGen Trading Station is the client's part of the online ForexGen Trading Platform. We provide all the needed trading tools for a successful trading. We attempt to supply the sufficient information and tools in order to make the Forex traders' decisions more appropriate and easy. The program has a simple and user friendly interface that allows traders to monitor their transactions and their account as well as performing technical analysis and develop Forex trading strategies of their own.

ForexGen provides continuous real-time information and sophisticated technical analysis tools. ForexGen Trading platforms are stable, secure and characterized by its unique performance. It is the best solution for trading on Forex.

 

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ForexGen sole aim is to make its clients reach the utmost satisfaction possible. It is not ramble, it is true and all our clients' testimonials are proofs on that.
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