28 November, 2008
ForexGen | Oil Falls Below $54 as US Demand Outlook Worsens
Oil falls below $54 as rising oil inventories, bad economic data point to falling US demand
Oil prices fell below $54 a barrel Thursday as dismal U.S. economic data and rising crude inventories outweighed the possibility of production cuts by OPEC and Russia.
By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for January delivery was down $1.19 to $53.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Markets in the United States are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, but electronic trading on the Nymex continues.
The dollar's weakening against other major currencies helped the Nymex contract recover from a low of $52.62 earlier in the session. Investors tend to increase their holdings in commodities like oil when the dollar falls and as a hedge against inflation.
In London, January Brent crude fell 65 cents to $53.27 on the ICE Futures exchange.
Prices have hovered just above three-year lows this week as bad economic news painted a bleak picture of U.S. demand for crude.
The Commerce Department on Wednesday said orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in two years. The 6.2 percent drop was more than double the 3 percent decline economists expected.
The department also said Americans cut their spending in October by the largest amount since the 2001 terrorist attacks. Consumer spending plunged by 1 percent last month, worse than the 0.9 percent decline that had been expected.
The fall in consumer spending has shown up in rising oil and gasoline inventories. For the week ended Nov. 21, crude stocks jumped by 7.3 million barrels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in a weekly report Wednesday. Analysts had expected a boost of only 400,000 barrels.
Gasoline inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels. Analysts expected stockpiles to rise by only 300,000 barrels
"It looks like $50 is a support level," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. "But when it gets up to $54, people take profits. No one wants to get too bullish."
Prices have fluctuated between about $50 and $54 a barrel this week as investors grapple with the impact the global economic slowdown will have on crude demand.
The Nymex contract rose $3.67 overnight to settle at $54.44 on expectations China's biggest interest rate cut in 11 years -- and the fourth in three months -- will boost growth and demand for oil in the world's second-largest economy.
"People are still confused about the overall global economic situation," Rigby said. "Traders were looking for supportive news, so they looked to the China rate cuts."
"But for the next few months, everyone is going to be worried about the U.S. economy since it's still the largest in the world."
The dollar weakened Wednesday, helping to limit oil's losses. By the afternoon in Europe, the euro was worth $1.2921, up from $1.2899 on Wednesday, while the British pound rose to $1.5446 from $1.5350 in the previous session.
The dollar also retreated against the Japanese currency, to 95.41 yen from 95.65 yen on Wednesday.
Expectations of a production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has helped support prices. OPEC, which accounts for 40 percent of global supply, will hold an informal meeting Saturday in Cairo and an official meeting Dec. 17 in Algeria.
Some OPEC members, such as Venezuela, have called for the group to reduce output quotas by 1 million barrels a day at the Cairo meeting, while OPEC President Chakib Khelil has said the organization needs more time to evaluate the effect of previous production cuts.
The group cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day last month.
"I wouldn't be surprised if they announce a cut this Saturday," Rigby said. "Anything they can do to get prices back up, they will. It will have to be between 500,000 and 1 million to get the traders interested."
Investors will also be eyeing Russia to see if the oil exporter joins OPEC in cutting output. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said this week his county will support any production cut OPEC makes.
"They may talk about it, but I'd be surprised if they actually did it," Rigby said. "Russia wants all the benefits of what OPEC does to boost prices, but I don't know if they really want to cut their production and their revenue."
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell half a penny to $1.1750 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 3.07 cents to $1.706 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery slid 9.7 cents to $6.781 per 1,000 cubic feet.
ForexGen Trading ( Profit/Loss )
The differential indicator is an indicator used to identify the profit/loss that would have been realized if any trader submitted multiple positions at the same time.
The indicator shows the rise and fall of the profit of positions opened at the red vertical line through a red graph line in a certain interval of time starting from the time of opening the positions and reaching to the current time, where each point is the total profit of opened positions at this time.
Oil prices fell below $54 a barrel Thursday as dismal U.S. economic data and rising crude inventories outweighed the possibility of production cuts by OPEC and Russia.
By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for January delivery was down $1.19 to $53.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Markets in the United States are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, but electronic trading on the Nymex continues.
The dollar's weakening against other major currencies helped the Nymex contract recover from a low of $52.62 earlier in the session. Investors tend to increase their holdings in commodities like oil when the dollar falls and as a hedge against inflation.
In London, January Brent crude fell 65 cents to $53.27 on the ICE Futures exchange.
Prices have hovered just above three-year lows this week as bad economic news painted a bleak picture of U.S. demand for crude.
The Commerce Department on Wednesday said orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in two years. The 6.2 percent drop was more than double the 3 percent decline economists expected.
The department also said Americans cut their spending in October by the largest amount since the 2001 terrorist attacks. Consumer spending plunged by 1 percent last month, worse than the 0.9 percent decline that had been expected.
The fall in consumer spending has shown up in rising oil and gasoline inventories. For the week ended Nov. 21, crude stocks jumped by 7.3 million barrels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in a weekly report Wednesday. Analysts had expected a boost of only 400,000 barrels.
Gasoline inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels. Analysts expected stockpiles to rise by only 300,000 barrels
"It looks like $50 is a support level," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. "But when it gets up to $54, people take profits. No one wants to get too bullish."
Prices have fluctuated between about $50 and $54 a barrel this week as investors grapple with the impact the global economic slowdown will have on crude demand.
The Nymex contract rose $3.67 overnight to settle at $54.44 on expectations China's biggest interest rate cut in 11 years -- and the fourth in three months -- will boost growth and demand for oil in the world's second-largest economy.
"People are still confused about the overall global economic situation," Rigby said. "Traders were looking for supportive news, so they looked to the China rate cuts."
"But for the next few months, everyone is going to be worried about the U.S. economy since it's still the largest in the world."
The dollar weakened Wednesday, helping to limit oil's losses. By the afternoon in Europe, the euro was worth $1.2921, up from $1.2899 on Wednesday, while the British pound rose to $1.5446 from $1.5350 in the previous session.
The dollar also retreated against the Japanese currency, to 95.41 yen from 95.65 yen on Wednesday.
Expectations of a production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has helped support prices. OPEC, which accounts for 40 percent of global supply, will hold an informal meeting Saturday in Cairo and an official meeting Dec. 17 in Algeria.
Some OPEC members, such as Venezuela, have called for the group to reduce output quotas by 1 million barrels a day at the Cairo meeting, while OPEC President Chakib Khelil has said the organization needs more time to evaluate the effect of previous production cuts.
The group cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day last month.
"I wouldn't be surprised if they announce a cut this Saturday," Rigby said. "Anything they can do to get prices back up, they will. It will have to be between 500,000 and 1 million to get the traders interested."
Investors will also be eyeing Russia to see if the oil exporter joins OPEC in cutting output. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said this week his county will support any production cut OPEC makes.
"They may talk about it, but I'd be surprised if they actually did it," Rigby said. "Russia wants all the benefits of what OPEC does to boost prices, but I don't know if they really want to cut their production and their revenue."
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell half a penny to $1.1750 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 3.07 cents to $1.706 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery slid 9.7 cents to $6.781 per 1,000 cubic feet.
ForexGen Trading ( Profit/Loss )
The differential indicator is an indicator used to identify the profit/loss that would have been realized if any trader submitted multiple positions at the same time.
The indicator shows the rise and fall of the profit of positions opened at the red vertical line through a red graph line in a certain interval of time starting from the time of opening the positions and reaching to the current time, where each point is the total profit of opened positions at this time.
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