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U.K. households injected GBP 5.7 bln into housing equity in the three months to September, compared with GBP 2 bln in the last quarter.

Q2 data had shown that repayments exceeded new borrowing for the first time in a decade and the trend continued in Q3. Withdrawals as a percentage of post-tax income amounted to -2.4% in Q3, compared to -0.8% in Q2.

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USD/CAD Ratio: 1.10

Trading Forecast: Bearish

USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.36 as 58% of open positions were long.

In detail, long positions are 7.9% lower than yesterday and 60.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.4% higher than yesterday and 32.7% weaker since last week.

Open interest is 1.6% stronger than yesterday and 62.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and gives a marginally USDCAD-bearish bias, but the sharp drop in open interest gives us little confidence in these forecasts.

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3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
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5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
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[ForexGen Money Manager]

An individual who is responsible for the entire financial portfolio of another individual or another entity. A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.

Benefits of being a Money Manager with [ForexGen]:

* Providing three different commission sources.
* Weekly commission plan.
* Easy & fast commission withdrawals.
* Fixed percentage of the profits.
* P = k * D “P=Profit, k=Variable Parameter, D=Deposits”

The money manager gets a fixed percentage of the profit previously agreed upon with the client for managing the client funds as a bonus feature.

The most competitive trading conditions:

* 2 pips spread on six currency pairs.
* Providing online trading services without maintenance margin, margin call and no automatic closing of positions below the initial margin on weekdays for accounts with initial equity of up to $1 million US. The margin level have to be recognized Fridays at 23:00 CET and before public holidays.
* Leverages up to 1:200 for accounts up to $1 million US.
* Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.

Wall Street declines as investors sift through more data showing an anemic economy

Wall Street pulled back again Tuesday in muted trading ahead of the holiday, as another round of reports showed further deterioration in the housing market and broader economy.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished lower for the fifth straight day, falling 100 points.
Tuesday's gloomy data was hardly surprising to jaded investors. And trading volume has been light this week, which tends to skew the market's movements; many traders are on vacation for Christmas, and the market will close early, at 1 p.m. EST, on Wednesday.

"It is a very quiet news week, and much of it has already been priced into the market," said Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at Voyageur Asset Management.
The reports offered Wall Street no reason to be upbeat, however, and the concern remains that the economy will keep weakening well into the new year. That anxiety is sapping the hope for a year-end rally in the Dow, which is has fallen 36.5 percent since 2008 began.
The Commerce Department reiterated Tuesday that third-quarter gross domestic product, a measure of the economy that tallies the value of goods and services, fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent.

The government also said sales of new homes fell in November to the slowest pace in nearly 18 years, while prices of new homes dropped by the biggest amount in eight months.
Sales of existing homes keep dropping as well. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million in November from a downwardly revised pace of 4.91 million in October. That was more than analysts expected.
The Dow Jones industrial average shed 100.28, or 1.18 percent, to 8,419.49. The Dow is well off the multiyear lows it tumbled to in mid-November, but it is still down more than 400 points, or 4.6 percent, so far for the month of December. Typically, December is the one of the best months for the stock market.

Broader indexes also declined on Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 8.47, or 0.97 percent, to 863.16. The Nasdaq composite index fell 10.81, or 0.71 percent, to 1,521.54. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 6.43, or 1.35 percent, to 468.64.
Declining issues led advancers by 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 3.63 billion shares, down from 4.31 billion shares on Monday.
Government bond prices were narrowly mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, was flat at 2.18 percent. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, was unchanged at 0.02 percent from late Monday.

News from corporate America on Tuesday brought little cheer.
Greeting-card company American Greetings Corp. said it swung to a third-quarter loss, hurt by hefty charges and a decline in sales. Shares fell $3.42, or 35 percent, to $6.40.
And the shape of the financial industry continued to shift, as two more companies got government funding.

Credit card lender American Express Co. and commercial financial firm CIT Group Inc. said Tuesday they each received preliminary approval to obtain billions in funding from the government's $700 billion bank investment program.
American Express fell 46 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $17.96, and CIT Group rose 8 cents to $4.26.
Shareholders approved two acquisitions that were forced by banks' massive credit losses.
PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and National City Corp. shareholders approved PNC's acquisition of the Cleveland-based bank, and Wells Fargo & Co. and Wachovia Corp. shareholders approved Wells Fargo's $11.8 billion purchase of the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank.

Shares of Pittsburgh-based PNC rose 33 cents to $43.01, and National City shares edged up 4 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $1.65 on its last day of trading.
Shares of San Francisco-based Wells Fargo fell 43 cents to $26.99, and Wachovia shares fell 15 cents to $5.30.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.
Oil prices fell on concerns that energy demand is evaporating in the face of a severe global economic slowdown. Light, sweet crude fell 93 cents to settle at $38.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after dipping below $38 earlier in the day.
The plunge in energy prices has brought little comfort to stock investors. The downturn should give consumers a break when they heat their homes and fill their cars' tanks, but it is a glaring sign of the grim economic outlook and the shattered financial industry.


ForexGen offers three types of business partnerships:

*Introducing Broker
*White label
*Money Manager

ForexGen Introducing Brokers, White Label and Money Manager holders are recognized as a strategic business partners. The main focus of our service is to satisfy our partner's needs in order to deal with a qualified service and gain a huge income sharing plan.

[ForexGen] provide appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.

Swiss Franc Technical Outlook

The Swiss Franc showed incredible strength against the US Dollar through recent trade, but a sharp USD/CHF reversal off of important Fibonacci support suggests that further short-term corrections are likely.

The 1.0670 mark represents the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2300-0.9640 move, and said level may continue to contain declines through near-term price action. Shorter-term, subsequent resistance can be found at recent spike-highs of 1.1136.

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook

The US dollar has found a base against the Canadian Dollar at the 1.2000 mark, representing the confluence of the USD/CAD’s short-term rising trendline and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0300-1.3020 move.

Said level is likely to contain any short-term declines in the USD/CAD, while intraday spike-highs near 1.2400 represent subsequent support. A break below 1.2000 would negate our short-term bullish bias.

[ForexGen Money Manager]

An individual who is responsible for the entire financial portfolio of another individual or another entity. A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.

Benefits of being a Money Manager with [ForexGen]:

* Providing three different commission sources.
* Weekly commission plan.
* Easy & fast commission withdrawals.
* Fixed percentage of the profits.
* P = k * D “P=Profit, k=Variable Parameter, D=Deposits”

The money manager gets a fixed percentage of the profit previously agreed upon with the client for managing the client funds as a bonus feature.

The most competitive trading conditions:

* 2 pips spread on six currency pairs.
* Providing online trading services without maintenance margin, margin call and no automatic closing of positions below the initial margin on weekdays for accounts with initial equity of up to $1 million US. The margin level have to be recognized Fridays at 23:00 CET and before public holidays.
* Leverages up to 1:200 for accounts up to $1 million US.
* Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.

The European Central Bank is in a very different situation to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has cut interest rates almost to zero, ECB executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in an interview published on Sunday.
Asked by the Rome daily Il Messaggero if the ECB is considering following the Fed's lead on rates, Bini Smaghi said the lending situation in the United States was worse than in Europe and warned about the risks of a too lax monetary policy.
"The United States' situation is very different from Europe's ... the (U.S) transmission mechanism works less well," Bini Smaghi was quoted as saying.
He pointed out that lending rates to businesses and consumers in the United States had remained as high as in the euro zone even though official Fed rates stand at just 0.00-0.25 percent compared with the ECB's key rate of 2.5 percent.

"We must not forget that the current crisis was caused by a period of interest rates taken to a very low level for too long," he added.
Bini Smaghi said financial markets showed signs of "slowly and gradually settling down" but said inter-bank lending rates needed to come down more quickly toward official ECB rates.
However, he expressed doubt that Euribor, the reference inter-bank lending rate, was a "transparent" and accurate reflection of inter-bank transactions.
He also urged banks to make loans more readily available to customers to limit the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy and called on banks to accept offers of public capital to improve confidence in the banking system.

"To reassure markets, the banks should increase their capital above prudential requirements, also by accepting public contributions," Bini Smaghi said.
He warned that survey data suggested banks plan to further tighten credit conditions and said this would be "self-harming" for the banks themselves as well as for the economy.

He called for the ECB to be given a greater role in financial supervision in Europe by increasing coordination between supervision over single institutions and vigilance over credit markets as a whole, which is in central bank hands.
The ECB should be given a role in the colleges charged with supervising big banking groups, he said.
Looking back over public policy in 2008, Bini Smaghi said that allowing the failure of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers had been a mistake and its consequences had been underestimated.
However, he defended the ECB's often criticized decision to raise interest rates in July, saying it was justified by inflation rates and expectations at the time and had also contributed to the subsequent sharp drop in inflation.

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A look at economic developments, activity in stock markets around the world Thursday

A look at economic developments and stock-market activity around the world Thursday:

TOKYO -- The yen weakened slightly against the dollar after a dramatic surge in recent days, as Japan warned of possible intervention in the foreign exchange market and ahead of an expected rate cut by the country's central bank. The pause in the yen's climb came as Tokyo strengthened its language on the possibility of intervening to limit the currency's strength and protect Japanese exporters. Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa told reporters he would "implement appropriate measures" regarding the yen's gains. "For export manufacturers the acceleration of the strong yen is a negative factor," he said. The Bank of Japan, which began a two-day policy meeting on Thursday afternoon, was widely expected to cut interest rates from the current 0.30 percent, probably by half, which could also cause the yen to weaken as investors sold the currency and sought better rates elsewhere. The Nikkei 225 stock average climbed 54.71 points, or 0.6 percent, to 8,667.23.

LONDON -- British auto manufacturers stepped up pressure on Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government to deliver an industry bailout package as a report revealed that car production slumped by a third in November. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders warned that crumbling domestic and export demand would lead to extended plant closures and job cuts as production falls, leaving Britain unprepared for improved economic conditions. The industry body wants the government -- which has confirmed it is in talks with Jaguar Land Rover's Indian owner about possible financial support -- to move quickly to restore demand and loosen tight credit conditions. Meanwhile, official figures showed British retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent from October to November, even as government debt hit its highest in almost a quarter century and a survey indicated half a million households will be behind in mortgage payments next year. Britain's FTSE-100 closed up 0.2 percent at 4,330.66.

FRANKFURT, Germany -- Business confidence in Europe's biggest economy fell to its lowest point in over a quarter century in December as the global economic crisis stanched near-term prospects. The Munich-based Ifo Institute said that its monthly index of German business sentiment slipped to 82.6 points in December from 85.8 points in November. It was last that low in November 1982, and has fallen more than 20 points in the last year. The survey said that the business climate for manufacturing -- a key segment of Germany's economy -- cooled considerably. Germany's DAX rose 48.02 points, or 1 percent, to 4,756.40.

BEIJING -- China cut prices for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The price of diesel will fall by 18 percent while the price of gasoline is cut by 13.8 percent, effective Friday, according to the country's planning agency. Jet fuel prices will fall by 32 percent. The cuts will help trucking companies, airlines, factories and others that are being squeezed by high fuel prices and a slump in sales. The price cuts come as Beijing is trying to revive falling economic growth but the announcement made no mention of a link with its stimulus measures. It said prices were cut to reflect a decline in global oil costs. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2 percent, or 38.87 points, to 2,015.69. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index recovered near the end of the session to add 0.2 percent to 15,497.81.

PARIS -- Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion investment fraud demonstrates the absolute necessity of better regulation of financial sectors, the French prime minister said. Francois Fillon called the affair "a real scandal" and said it "clearly shows that the regulatory reform we've been calling for ... is absolutely necessary." His comments on Europe-1 radio came after France's market regulator said late Wednesday that French investors may have lost "several hundred million euros" in the scam through mutual funds with indirect exposure to Madoff's funds. The CAC-40 in France was down 0.2 percent at 3,234.15.

SEOUL, South Korea -- South Korea said it plans to establish a 20 trillion won ($15.5 billion) fund with central bank support next year to help shore up banks and encourage them to lend. The fund, set to start operations from Jan. 1, is aimed at helping lenders boost their capital adequacy ratios by purchasing certain shares and bonds, the Financial Services Commission announced. Participation is available to banks on a voluntary basis, according to the commission, which serves as South Korea's financial regulator. Meanwhile, brawling South Korean lawmakers tried to sledgehammer their way into a parliamentary meeting room barricaded by the ruling party as the National Assembly descended into chaos over a free trade agreement with the United States. Opposition parties were incensed by the ruling Grand National Party's move to submit the agreement to a committee on trade, setting in motion the process for the accord to win approval in the legislature. The opposition attempt failed, and 10 GNP legislators introduced the bill to the committee. The Kospi closed up 0.5 percent at 1,175.91.

STOCKHOLM, Sweden -- Swedish lawmakers approved a 28 billion kronor ($3.6 billion) aid package to help prevent the country's auto industry from collapsing. The plan includes 20 billion kronor in credit guarantees, 5 billion kronor in rescue loans and 3 billion kronor in research funds. It does not include options to buy troubled brands such as Ford Motor Co.'s Volvo or General Motors Corp.'s Saab. Ford has said it intends to offload Volvo, by either selling it or spinning it off into a separate company, and General Motors has said it is performing "a strategic review" of Saab.

KIEV, Ukraine -- About 1,000 angry Ukrainians rallied in the Ukrainian capital, protesting price increases, wage delays, utility cutoffs and other effects of the economic crisis gripping this ex-Soviet nation. Inflation has ravaged the economy and the hryvna has lost half its value since the global financial meltdown began in September. Adding to the tensions, Russia's state natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, warned on Thursday it will cut gas supplies to Ukraine on Jan. 1 if it fails to pay off a $2 billion gas debt.

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Euro-zone trade swung into a surprising surplus in October, the EU statistics agency said, even as a stronger euro and tumbling demand abroad tamps down exports from the recession-hit 15-nation economy. The euro-zone reported a trade surplus of 900 million euros ($1.27 billion) in October from a year ago after posting a 4.5 billion euros ($6.36 billion) deficit in September. Euro exports of 141.2 billion euros ($199.65) were up 1 percent in October compared to the same month last year. This outpaced imports, which were up 3 percent to 140.3 billion euros ($198.37) -- bucking a general trend in which euro nations now import more than they export. Meanwhile, BayernLB, the first German bank to seek state help, won EU approval for a 10 billion euros($14.14 billion) cash injection from the German government to help it survive the financial crisis. Germany has promised to put forward a restructuring plan for the bank within four months, it said. The bank already plans to slash 5,600 jobs -- 29 percent of its staff -- by 2013 and close offices outside Germany which will help it reduce costs by euro670 million.

MOSCOW -- The ruble ratcheted downward as the Russian Central Bank again loosened its defense of the currency, which is under constant pressure from declining oil prices and increasing economic woes. The depreciation was the second in as many days, the third this week, and the eighth since Nov. 11, when the bank began backing off support of the ailing national currency. The bank manages the value of the ruble against the dollar and euro, and has sought to let it fall in value more slowly than it would have under free market conditions.

SINGAPORE -- In a news conference here, World Bank President Robert Zoellick called on Asian governments to reject raising tariffs and other trade barriers in response to the global economic slowdown. Zoellick decried the failure of the Doha round of World Trade Organization talks and urged countries to maintain open trade policies. Asian economies, most of which rely on exports to drive growth, have suffered from a fall in demand from developed countries. While most countries in the region expect to avoid recession, they've all seen growth slow this year.

MUMBAI, India -- Lower fuel prices have pushed India's inflation down sharply, the Ministry of Commerce said, as the government tried to scrape together more funds to stimulate the country's flagging economy. The wholesale price index -- India's most-watched inflation measure -- hit 6.8 percent for the week ended Dec. 6, down from 8 percent for the prior week. This time last year, inflation was just 3.8 percent.

SANTIAGO, Chile -- A six-year cycle of rapid economic growth in Latin America will come to an end next year because of the global economic slowdown, a U.N. agency predicted. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean said growth will fall to 1.9 percent in 2009 from 4.6 percent this year. Falling international demand for Latin America's commodities is stalling economic growth in the region, according to a presentation by commission Executive Secretary Alicia Barcena. In afternoon trading, Chile's IPSA was nearly flat at 2,349, while Argentina's Merval index lost 0.7 percent to 1,140 and the Bovespa in Brazil lost 0.5 percent to 39,763. Mexico's IPC gained 1.5 percent to 22,889.

[ForexGen White Labels]

Forex White Label partnership allows the trader a quick access to the online foreign currency exchange market.

[ForexGen] provides two types of trading White Label partnerships, a limited and a full solution. ForexGen different types of forex White Label partners are able to access ForexGen's trading platform entirely branded under each partner's unique company image and name. We provide a customizable online trading platform for the different types of the two White Label solutions.

Forex – What is it?
The international currency market Forex is a special kind of the world financial market. Trader’s purpose on the Forex to get profit as the result of foreign currencies purchase and sale. The exchange rates of all currencies being in the market turnover are permanently changing under the action of the demand and supply alteration. The latter is a strong subject to the influence of any important for the human society event in the sphere of economy, politics and nature.

Consequently current prices of foreign currencies evaluated for instance in the US dollars fluctuate towards its higher and lower meanings. Using these fluctuations in accordance with a known principle “buy cheaper – sell higher” traders obtain gains.

Forex isdifferent in compare to all other sectors of the world financial system thanks to his heightened sensibility to a large and continuously changing number of factors, accessibility to all individual and corporative traders, exclusively high trade turnover which creates an ensured liquidity of traded currencies and the round - the clock business hours which enable traders to deal after normal hours or during national holidays in their country finding markets abroad open.

[ForexGen Customer & Trading Support]

ForexGen Customer Service seeks to achieve the highest level of customer satisfaction.

[ForexGen online trading services] are available 24 hours a day from Sunday at 6:00pm EST to Friday at 2:00pm EST to support and offer the help needed by all ForexGen's clients through answering any questions they may have.
ForexGen provides full time assistances to support clients during the usage of [ForexGen platform], whenever our clients face any problems during downloading or installing the platform ForexGen experienced stuff will help to overcome it.

ForexGen provides clients with full scale demonstrations and help for the technical issues.

Dealing Rooms.

ForexGen dealing desk representatives are available during trading hours - 24/5 from Sunday 6:00pm EST to Friday at 2:00pm EST.

You are encouraged to contact the dealing room by phone ONLY in these situations:

* If you are not able to access the internet.
* Failing to receive a confirmation on an online order.
* Failing to connect to ForexGen server.

Dollar falls versus the yen in trading late Monday night

The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen late Monday night. The greenback fell to 90.48 yen from the 90.60 yen it bought in late afternoon trading.

On Friday, the dollar was worth 91.12 yen.

[ForexGen White Labels]

Forex White Label partnership allows the trader a quick access to the online foreign currency exchange market.



ForexGen provides two types of trading White Label partnerships, a limited and a full solution. ForexGen different types of forex White Label partners are able to access ForexGen's trading platform entirely branded under each partner's unique company image and name. We provide a customizable online trading platform for the different types of the two White Label solutions.

[Full White Label]

We provide 'full White Label partnership' to match the needs of the regulated companies and organizations that have a legal authorization to hold clients' funds. Our online trading platform is the most qualified online trading software in addition to an experience based infrastructure, but the full White Label partner is responsible for all administrative work and of all contact with their clients, i.e. opening of accounts.

[Limited White Label]

Limited White Label partners are also offered to access our customized online trading platform but their customers have to open a direct forex trading account with [ForexGen] Investments. Consequently, limited White Label partners could be not regulated by a financial authority as they will not hold customers' funds. This service permits the customer to manage his trading actions freely without vast administrative paperwork.

Fitch: More Challenges Await U.S. Homebuilders as Housing Downturn Enters Year 4

With the U.S. economy in a severe recession and housing likely to deteriorate more sharply in 2009, U.S. homebuilders are facing even more operational and financial pressures, according to Fitch Ratings, which took rating actions on its public U.S. homebuilder universe of 14 companies late last week, resulting in nine downgrades and five affirmations.

Housing had stood out as one of the weakest sectors of (what was thought to be) a reasonably stable economy during the first three quarters of 2008. Affordability, wavering buyer confidence and significantly tighter mortgage standards, as well as still-considerable inventories of new and existing homes for sale (boosted by foreclosures) had severely restrained housing. But in the fall credit markets in the U.S. and in many other parts of the world froze, a condition that has barely eased. Already weak consumer confidence has plummeted. Job losses have surged. The economy is clearly now in a sharp recession. As weak as housing has been, it can deteriorate further, in particular, influenced by job losses, fear of job loss, poor consumer confidence and lack of income growth or possibly income contraction. Fitch is projecting that the recession, which technically began in December of 2007 (according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research) will extend well into 2009. Some recently announced programs or programs under consideration by the Treasury Department and Fed designed to boost housing demand may soften the impact of the recession, but it appears very likely that key housing metrics (starts, new home sales, existing home sales) will be meaningfully weaker in 2009 than was reflected in Fitch's earlier forecast. A trough in new home sales is not likely until the second half of 2009, if not later. Starts should bottom three-to-six months after new home sales.

Ratings Rationale:

Fitch concludes that operational and financial pressures will persist and, probably, intensify for the public homebuilders during 2009. Profitability and cash flow will be somewhat weaker than anticipated earlier. Operational and financial ratios will suffer further stress. The consequence of the change in macro perspective resulted in Fitch's most recent rating actions for the homebuilders. The Rating Outlook for the sector is Negative.

The new ratings for the homebuilders reflect the most likely macro perspective for the balance of 2008 and 2009 as well as company-specific performance to this point in the cyclical downturn. As Fitch has noted in the past, a homebuilder's approach to land and development spending, inventory management, free cash flow generation and management and debt reduction are considered in its ratings in the midst of a housing downturn as are other factors such as credit metrics, ability to satisfy covenants, liquidity, size, geographic and product diversification, margins, and frequency of real estate write downs and option write-offs, etc.

Homebuilders have to successfully operate within this challenging environment or wither away. Companies have to continue to downsize to the point where they can remain or become profitable (excluding non-recurring real estate charges). That means further cuts in staffing and other overhead, as well as other cost reductions.

The public homebuilders cannot significantly influence profitability, but they can manage their balance sheets and their liquidity. Fitch Ratings believes that, overall, the U.S. homebuilding sector has good liquidity, although there are some weaker companies that face greater risk. Many companies in this sector have generated meaningful free cash flows over the past 12 months, while terming out borrowings and maintaining access to committed bank facilities which together provide room to handle maturities and fund working capital needs. As compared to the last major housing downturn in the latter 1980's into the early 1990's, leverage was lower during the later part of this upcycle, at the peak and currently (for some of the builders). For the majority of public homebuilders, debt composition 15-20 years ago was mostly, or all, short-term construction loans and possibly a secured credit line, while today the debt is often weighted most heavily to well laddered public debt (a more appropriate balance with longer-lived real estate assets), and, to a lesser degree, to an unsecured revolving credit facility. (All of the public homebuilders in Fitch's coverage have unsecured revolving credit facilities except for Beazer Homes USA, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. and Standard Pacific Corp., which have secured revolving credit facilities.)

Fourth-Quarter 2008 and Calendar 2009:
The world economy is entering a severe recession. Output is falling in the US, Japan, Germany, France and the UK, and prospects are for this contraction in activity to intensify over the next 12 months. For the major advanced economies (the US, Euro area, UK and Japan) in aggregate, Fitch Ratings is forecasting the steepest decline in GDP since the Second World War at -0.8%, in part reflecting the unusually synchronized downturn expected next year.

Although the latest GDP figures for the third quarter of 2008 showed only a small fall, this disguised a clear trend of accelerated declines in consumer expenditure. Growth in the third quarter of 2008 was supported by an inventory accumulation and net exports. While imports will continue to decline, the recent pace of export growth seems unlikely to be sustained. Fitch projects fourth quarter GDP will decline at least 0.7%. GDP is expected to shrink by just over 1% next year. Unemployment is expected to rise in the 2008 fourth quarter and continue to increase reaching to 8.3%, some 3.5pp above its structural rate.

Fitch's forecast for the housing sector became more bearish as 2008 evolved. This is principally due to the influence of even tighter credit standards for homebuyers and the effect of disruptions in the credit markets.

Of course, most potential homebuyers, absent any real urgency to buy, are deferring the purchase decision, concerned that selling their existing home at a fair price may be challenging, and fearing that real home prices might further decline as builders increase the level of incentives being offered to the advantage of those who wait to buy.

The disruption in broad credit markets and media focus on accelerating job losses took a further toll on homebuyer confidence since September. Consequently, housing metrics are likely to be weaker in the fourth quarter of 2008 as compared to the preceding quarter.

Total housing starts are forecast to be 910,000 in 2008, 33.1% lower than in 2007. Single family starts are expected to be 0.62 million, down 41.0% as compared to a year ago. Multi-family starts should decrease 6.5% to 290,000. New single family home sales should fall 37.2% to 487,000, while existing home sales ease 13.6% to 4.88 million.

For the full year of 2008, production, as represented by housing starts (especially single family), is expected to fall slightly faster than sales (new orders), but unfortunately the supply of homes is expected to still be excessive entering 2009.

The average single family new home price is expected to drop 6.5% in 2008, while the median new home price decreases 5.5%. The 'real' price reductions are larger than shown by the government's published transaction prices (and our forecasts) as, for example, sales incentives are not included. However, in 2008 a greater portion of the "real" price reduction was due to overt sales price decreases than was the case in 2007. Unfortunately, home prices have still not yet reached market-clearing levels in most places. Home prices (especially existing home prices) definitely had been 'sticky' on the downside, but came down more sharply in 2008, at least partially prompted by aggressive pricing of foreclosures and distressed homes.

Fitch is forecasting a contracting economy during the first half of 2009. Real GDP is forecast to decrease 1.2% for all of 2009. Investment is expected to plunge 6.9% as consumer spending and imports decline 0.6% and 3.2%, respectively. Government spending (+2.3%) and exports (+2.2%) will be economic positives next year. Inflation is expected to slow to 1.5% from 2.7% in 2008. Interest rates are expected to slightly recede.

The economy in the midst of a moderate to severe recession is another blow to housing. In particular, a deteriorating economy further erodes consumer confidence and accelerates job losses and consequentially foreclosures. One source, RealtyTrac, is currently predicting 1 million foreclosures in 2009. Undoubtedly, another stimulus program will emanate from Congress early in 2009 and there may be national legislation to specifically and more effectively target the foreclosure problem, as well as accelerate housing demand. However, these actions are unlikely to stabilize and then boost housing demand until the second half of 2009 or later.

In 2009, total housing starts are projected to fall 22.0% to 710,000 with single family volume declining 22.6% to 480,000. New home sales are forecast to decrease 16.0% to 409,000, while existing home sales slip 3.0% to 4.735 million.

Average and median single family new home prices are projected to fall 2% and 1%, respectively, in 2009. The combination of overt price decreases and sales incentives should represent a less significant percentage of the base home price next year than was the case in 2008.

Implications for the Companies and the Ratings:

Through the three quarters of calendar 2008 builder revenues are down about 39%, home deliveries are off 33%, and EBITDA margins (before non-recurring, non-cash real estate charges) are about 570 basis points lower than year earlier levels. Third quarter net new unit orders are down 34%, on average, and unit backlog at the conclusion of the third quarter, on average, is 46% beneath year earlier levels.

These companies have been contracting staffing as demand has evaporated with personnel typically down 50-65% as compared to peak staffing in early 2006. Just as important, builders have been reducing inventories in 2008, down 53% on average as of the end of the 2008 third quarter (or equivalent) as compared to the peak quarter end in 2006. (Admittedly, this is partially as a consequence of write downs). The companies have lowered debt - on average 28.5% since the peak, typically in 2006. Free cash flow comparisons have generally improved.

Credit metrics (LTM EBITDA/interest incurred, debt to LTM EBITDA, and FFO interest coverage) are considerably lesser than at this time last year. Debt/capitalization ratios have deteriorated moderately to sharply for the majority of builders when compared to one or two years ago, largely as a result of erosion in shareholders' equity from sizeable real estate charges.

Given Fitch's adjusted macro forecasts for the balance of 2008 and 2009, it appears likely that builders' financial pressures will continue unabated. For the full year of 2008 homebuilders' revenues could drop 40%, on average, while pretax losses, before real estate charges, will be reported for 12 of the 14 homebuilders Fitch tracks.

Price competition will likely persist at current levels well into 2009. Consequently, margins will remain under pressure and more land value write downs are a distinct possibility, although likely to be of lesser magnitude than in 2008. However, fewer option write-offs are likely.

Deterioration in credit metrics will continue during the fourth quarter of 2008 and next year, particularly for profit related metrics (EBITDA, interest coverage; debt to EBITDA). Tangible net worth covenants will again be challenged.

Most of the public builders that Fitch tracks have negotiated new revolving credit agreements or amendments to existing agreements that should prevent the companies from violating interest coverage covenants in the fourth quarter of 2008 and into 2009 as well as covenants applicable to speculative inventories and tangible net worth. Some builders may have to revisit their bank syndicates and request further covenant adjustments in 2009.

If Fitch's year-end forecast for 2008 is correct, then 2009 will start off with still considerable inventory over-hang. New home sales comparisons (year-over-year) would likely bottom late in 2009 with housing starts bottoming three-to-six months later.

There is a high probability that many public builders' revenues and profitability will fall further in 2009. Excluding tax refunds, cash flow from operations is likely to be lower in 2009 relative to 2008.

Credit pressures will continue. It will be imperative that builders continue to contract their balance sheets, further reducing land and development spending. Possibly more aggressive pricing may be necessary to lower inventories, especially specs. Positive free cash flow comparisons should result.

Fitch expects homebuilders to reduce debt where possible and to exercise restraint as to share repurchase, dividends and acquisitions in these uncertain times.

Although some builders have been more proactive than others in reducing inventories and lowering debt levels, most, in retrospect, started relatively late during this cyclical downturn.

Fitch rates the builders within the context of a typical cycle. In the midst of a non-typical upcycle, as took place in the 1992-2005 period, a number of builders realized higher credit ratings. Conversely, in this sharper than expected contraction, which it appears will last longer, and as builders' operating and credit metrics will be even more stressed, ratings again have to be adjusted.

Following last week's rating actions, Fitch's Rating Outlook is Negative for the majority of the homebuilders. Recent and projected credit metrics and other key metrics, such as inventory and debt contraction and cash flow generation, were taken into account relative to the new ratings.

The following is a list of Fitch rated issuers and their current Issuer Default ratings (IDRs) in the U.S. homebuilding sector:

--Beazer Homes USA ('B-'; Outlook Negative);

--Centex Corp. ('BB'; Outlook Negative);

--D.R. Horton, Inc. ('BB'; Outlook Negative);

--Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. ('B-'; Outlook Negative);

--KB Home ('BB-'; Outlook Negative);

--Lennar Corp. ('BB+'; Outlook Negative;

--M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ('BBB-'; Outlook Stable);

--Meritage Homes Corp. ('B+'; Outlook Negative);

--M/I Homes, Inc. ('B'; Outlook Negative);

--NVR, Inc. ('BBB'; Outlook Stable);

--Pulte Homes ('BB+'; Outlook Negative);

--Ryland Group ('BB'; Outlook Negative);

--Standard Pacific Corp. ('B-'; Outlook Stable);

--Toll Brothers, Inc. ('BBB-'; Outlook Stable).

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With deflation still a possibility, credit markets have a hard time loosening up

Investors know the future will bring either inflation or deflation, but they can't decide which. So they're erring on the side of a worst case scenario, keeping the credit markets in a stranglehold and Treasury notes extremely popular.

Despite a moderate rise in the stock market Friday, the yield on the two-year Treasury note hit another record low, falling to about 0.76 percent for the first time since the note has been issued.

Adding fuel to the argument that the economy is headed for deflation, the Labor Department said its Producer Price Index, which tracks costs of goods before they reach consumers, fell 2.2 percent last month -- more than anticipated -- as gasoline and other energy prices retreated.

Government debt becomes more attractive in weak, deflationary economies not only because the assets are safe, but also because the returns are in fixed dollar amounts -- so when deflation occurs, they actually rise in value. This reduces the incentive, to some extent, to buy riskier, higher-yielding assets like junk bonds.

"The main driver of the credit markets, at one level, is inflation versus deflation," said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. When there's inflation, Treasurys become less attractive and investors look for assets that will offer higher returns.

The outlook for prices is murky right now, keeping investor demand for safety high and hurtling rates on riskier debt higher and higher. The government's huge issuances of debt should cause inflation, but a steep, prolonged recession would be deflationary. It's a quandary that's paralyzing investors.

"Are we really going to get significant deflation? If we are, it has one set of implications, and if we're not, it has an opposite set of conclusions. It's kind of a binary environment right now," said Jay Mueller, portfolio manager, Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

"If we have severe deflation, Treasurys are going to continue to be the preferred place to be," Mueller said. However, "it's hard to make these determinations because we don't have much track record to go on."

The last sustained period of deflation in the United States was during the Great Depression. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note's yield, at 2.58 percent on Friday, isn't that far off the yield on similar debt in the 1930s -- a little over 2.1 percent, according to Global Financial Data in Los Angeles. (Later, in 1945, yields fell as low as 1.55 percent.)

But the 10-year note's yield could have a lot farther to fall if Japan is any indication.

After Japan's stock and real estate bubble burst in the late 1980s, the nation went into a very long slump, and yields on the Japanese government's 10-year note in 2003 fell as low as 0.46 percent, according to Mueller.

"Japan has had 10 years of deflation at this point. I doubt that it's in the cards for us, but it does show how low yields can go in a deflationary environment," Mueller said.

Yields on longer-dated Treasurys continued to hover near their recent historic lows. The 10-year note rose 8/32 to 110 6/32 and its yield fell to 2.58 percent from 2.66 percent. The 30-year bond rose 16/32 to 128 1/32 and its yield fell to 3.05 percent from 3.08 percent.

The three-month Treasury bill's yield was 0.04 percent, up from 0.01 percent but still indicating high levels of demand for safe, short-term assets. The discount rate was 0.02 percent.

As investors swarm to government debt, they are also starting to snap up mortgage-backed securities -- which is helping actual mortgage rates fall -- and some are buying high-grade corporate debt again.

But speculative grade, or junk, bonds are seeing demand tumble even further.

"One of the things I'm a little worried about with high yields is it's a self-sustaining situation," Ablin said. A company's ability to get new funding is reliant on their rating, and their rating is reliant on their financial health. There's a worry, Ablin said, that the junk bond market "collapses on itself."

Over the past month, bonds for investment-grade companies have gained more than 4 percent, according to the iShares Investment Grade Bond Fund, but junk bonds have fallen more than 11 percent, according to the Lehman High Yield Bond Exchange Traded Fund.

And when prices fall, rates rise, making it more expensive for the companies to issue debt. Standard & Poor's said Friday that speculative-grade rates, as compared to Treasury rates, broke through records Thursday, surpassing 17 percentage points.

About half of all rated companies have a junk rating.

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Uncertainty over a bailout of U.S. automakers, and declining U.S. retail sales added new headaches for the world's financial stewards, already overwhelmed by recession, tight credit markets and a debilitated White House.

Meanwhile Wall Street was coping with the shock waves of a suspected $50 billion fraud that may rank as one of the biggest ever, Japan weighed a currency intervention, OPEC debated production cuts and Europe agreed to a 200 billion euro ($268 billion) stimulus package.

"This is ugly and getting uglier," Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Management in New Jersey, said on Friday.

"Pick your poison. Do you want to talk about autos, or some of the macroeconomic data we've had coming out or do you want to talk about Madoff? If there's something positive here, share it with me. I see nothing here that is going to give anyone any reason to buy the market."

Bernard Madoff, a quiet force on Wall Street for decades, was arrested and charged on Thursday. The former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market also ran a hedge fund that U.S. prosecutors said racked up $50 billion of fraudulent losses.

The U.S. Senate late on Thursday failed to enact a $14 billion auto bailout previously approved by the House of Representatives.

That prompted concerns that one of the last bastions of the U.S. manufacturing base could be forced into bankruptcy or collapse, jeopardizing millions of jobs and having repercussions worldwide.

General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC had sought billions of dollars in immediate aid to avert collapse, while Ford Motor Co wanted a hefty line of credit.

'BAD CHRISTMAS'

"It's going to be a very, very bad Christmas for a lot of people," said U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat who favored the bailout. "I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It's not going to be a pretty sight."

The Bush administration warned that the U.S. economy could not withstand such a collapse and said it might be willing to provide emergency funding to rescue the industry, possibly from the $700 billion financial bailout fund known as TARP.

That prevented a precipitous drop on Wall Street. The Dow was down 0.9 percent and the S&P 500 was off 0.7 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei average fell 5.6 percent after Japan expanded a fiscal stimulus plan and bolstered a war chest for bank rescues to $131 billion. (nT91372)

But Tokyo kept markets guessing on whether it would intervene to stop a surging yen from pushing the economy deeper into recession.

European stocks were down 2.6 percent after European Union leaders sealed the 200 billion-euro stimulus package, which had exposed deep differences between Britain and Germany.

The euro zone clearly needs a boost -- data on Friday showed industrial output dived 5.3 percent year-on-year in October.

The United States was then hit by additional troubling indicators when retail sales fell for the fifth straight month and producer prices dipped 2.2 percent, raising the specter of deflation.

Even China has been unable to avoid damage.

Beijing launched a 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan on November 9 and followed up on Wednesday with a pledge after a strategy meeting to ramp up public spending and cut taxes.

Senior officials were confident of hitting 8 percent growth in 2009 -- the rate deemed necessary to create enough jobs for the millions joining the workforce each year.

Others disagree. The World Bank forecasts 7.5 percent growth next year; Goldman Sachs expects a rate of just 6.0 percent.

The good news for consumers was falling oil and commodities prices.

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Price pressures in the U.K. are expected to weaken further as economists forecast the producer price index to fall to 5.6% from 6.8% in October.

Trading the News: U.K. Producer Price Index Output

What’s Expected
Time of release: 12/08/2008 09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : GBPUSD
Expected: 5.6%
Previous: 6.8%

Impact the U.K. PPI Output has had on GBPUSD after the last 3 releases







The U.K.’s producer price index fell at a record pace in October, which lowered the annual rate of inflation to 6.8% from 8.5% in September. The breakdown of the report showed that petrol prices fell 5.6% from the previous month, while core prices slipped 0.5%. The data suggests that firms will continued to cut prices as Europe’s second largest economy heads into its worst recession since 1991, and has certainly raised the risks for deflation as the Bank of England expects inflation to fall below the 2% target. Falling commodity prices paired with deteriorating fundamentals led the BoE to aggressively lower borrowing costs throughout the second half of the year, and may continue to ease policy next year to carry out their dual mandate to ensure price stability while fostering economic growth.


Factory-gate prices in the U.K. dropped for the second consecutive month in September as economic activity weakened throughout the second half of the year. The producer price index slipped to 8.5% from a revised reading of 9.1% in August on the back of falling commodity prices, and should allow the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs further as the economy heads into a recession. The MPC voted unanimously cut the benchmark interest rate by 50bp in a coordinated effort to restore confidence in the financial market, and lowered the rate to 4.50% from 5.00%. Easing price pressures paired with fears of a significant economic downturn has already stoked expectations that the BoE will continue to cut borrowing costs in the near-term, which could weigh on the British pound going forward.


U.K. producer prices unexpectedly declined for the first time in nearly a year due to a significant pullback in commodity prices. The PPI slipped to 9.7% from 10.2% in the previous month, which suggests that inflation may have peaked during July. Easing prices pressures will certainly allow the Bank of England to shift their focus to growth and push inflationary concerns to the backburner, which leaves the door open for a potential rate over the coming months as growth prospects for the U.K. deteriorate. Meanwhile, the MPC continued to hold a neutral policy stance as they voted to hold the interest rate at 5.00% during the September 4th meeting, while Chancellor Alistair Darling explicitly stated that Great Britain may face the worst economic downturn since the 1940’s.

How To Trade This Event Risk


As the Bank of England continues to hold a dovish outlook, we would need to see a considerable spike in inflation to set the stage for a long pound-dollar trade. As a result, a PPI reading above 6.8% would favor a bullish outlook for the British pound, and we will look for a green, five-minute candle following the release to confirm entry on two lots of GBPUSD. We will place our initial stop at the nearby swing low (or reasonable distance), and this risk will determine our first target. Our second target will be based purely on our discretion, and once the first lot reaches its target, we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven in order to preserve our profits.

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Sweden's Riksbank Meets Ahead of Schedule to Cut 175bp and Shifts Policy Outlook
Today's Riksbank rate announcement was moved forward from December 17. The central bank gave no reason for the date change but the move by the Riksbank's suggests that the central bank is eager to cut rates. A potential aggressive cut would coincide with similar moves from the ECB and BoE today. We have revised our rate outlook and now look for a one percentage point rate cut to 2.75%, which is in line with the Bloomberg snap poll this week. The Riksbank should also revise down its growth and rate projections. We expect further sharp rate cuts ahead and look for the repo rate to bottom at 1.50% next year.

The Riksbank slashed the repo rate by a massive 175bp to 2.00%, far more than the market median estimate for a 100bp rate cut as well as the 125bp cut priced in the markets. The aggressive move will also raise the stakes ahead of the BoE and ECB rate announcements later today. The central bank signals that this is its last cut, with its rate path outlook having the repo rate bottoming at 2.00% and sees a repo rate of 2.5% in Q4 of 2010 and of 3.2% in 2011. However, we see the risk for the Riskbank yet again having to revise down its rate estimate and cut rates further to 1.50% next year. The central bank also revised down its growth estimates to 2.2% and -0.5% for 2008 and 2009 respectively, versus 1.2% and 0.1% in October, while 2008 and 2009 CPI is now estimated at 1.2% next year, compared to a 2.1% estimate in October.

Meanwhile, the SEK headed lower after the Riksbank rate move, which saw the repo rate slashed by 175bp to 2.00%. The move was a shock to the market, which was pricing in a move up to 125bp, although the consensus had been for a 1% move. EUR-SEK moved up to 10.5290 highs versus 10.4500 ahead of the announcement, which increases the risk of a challenge of the 10.6900 top recorded in November. Equity markets and the churn in the risk profile should drive price action, while the risk of further rate cuts ahead should also encourage further SEK selling on rallies. EUR-SEK bids are noted below 10.4000 and in to the 10.3500 region in the very near-term.

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