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Brazil to Sell Bonds to Finance Sovereign Fund

Brazil plans to sell treasury bonds to finance sovereign fund after Senate nixes funding

Brazil will sell treasury bonds to finance its new sovereign wealth fund, circumventing a legislative hurdle that had limited its cash supply, a treasury official said Friday.
The bond issue will allow Brazil's government to deposit 14.2 billion reals ($5.9 billion), or 0.5 percent of gross domestic product, into the fund by January, Deputy Treasury Secretary Cleber Oliveira said, giving no other details on the sale.
Brazil's Senate had approved the fund's creation, but refused to tap 14.2 billion reals from the nation's 2009 budget to finance it.

The sovereign wealth fund is intended to protect Brazil from future financial crises and help Brazilian companies boost trade and expand abroad. Finance Minister Guido Mantega, who proposed its creation in May, suggested that it be financed by public income in excess of the state's target primary budget surplus of 3.8 percent of gross domestic product.
Legislators debated the plan intensely, with some arguing it was unwise to store, rather than spend, so much public cash amid a global financial crisis.
But a provisional measure authorizing the bond sale was part of a law establishing the fund that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed on Wednesday.

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9 Retirement Resolutions For 2009

9 for '09: Resolutions to build a sounder, safer retirement in the year ahead

Exercise more, stop smoking, lose weight -- all are excellent ideas for 2009 for those who need to prod themselves in those areas.
But instead of making the traditional New Year's effort to shed 15 pounds, usually in vain, how about aiming to trim your spending by 15 percent?
It's a worthy goal for anyone, but perhaps particularly for those nearing retirement age. With fewer years to let their investments recover from the biggest stock-market decline in decades, more immediate steps may be necessary to help keep finances in line.

"The money saved can be used to pay off debt and increase retirement savings," said Mitch Franklin, assistant professor of accounting at Syracuse University and an advocate for cutting back by 15 percent.
Here are nine financial resolutions for '09 with extra relevance for retirement planning, as recommended by a variety of personal finance experts:

-- 1. REDUCE YOUR SPENDING BY UP TO 15 PERCENT.

This is a good time to get a handle on your expenses and determine what can be reduced or eliminated.
Larry Reno, 62, didn't wait for New Year's to take the plunge. Startled into action by the market's plunge, the retired civil servant from from Fayetteville, Ga., has slashed household spending for him and his wife Cindy by 10 to 15 percent since mid-September.
The Renos achieved it without taking a machete to their spending budget. They switched to a discount store for their grocery shopping, consolidated errands into a single trip, ate out less often, and signed up to be "secret shoppers," or mystery shoppers -- getting paid to evaluate retailers. Instead of spending over $100 to replace Larry's old dress shoes, he got them resoled for $37.

Reno says the spending reductions provide flexibility to make sure money is available when truly needed.
"It makes me feel good when I know that I'm saving a little bit of money and I won't have to cut back on money for other things," he said.

-- 2. DON'T PANIC.

"People should resolve to stay calm and not make any hasty decisions," said Tahira Hira, a professor of personal finance and consumer economics at Iowa State University.
Putting blinders on and refusing to open financial statements probably isn't the best way to achieve that calm, however. That might mean missed opportunities to make a sound decision about allocations or investments. Nor is pulling back on all investments indefinitely, especially when it comes to 401(k) or other retirement plans.

-- 3. STAY INVESTED.

The market will eventually bounce back, and you have to stay invested to benefit. Investments in cash are for the short term and ultimately lose ground to inflation.
"History has shown that discipline is often rewarded," said John Curry, head of individual retirement services at New York-based AllianceBernstein Investments.
He noted that in the first year after the bottom of the tech bubble, the market was up 25 percent.

-- 4. INCREASE CONTRIBUTIONS TO RETIREMENT FUNDS.
This may not be possible for those who are extremely stretched, but it's an excellent way to supplement funds depleted by the stock market's decline.
"If we are not maximizing our retirement contributions, we are leaving a lot off the table -- (missing out on) tax savings and in many cases employer contributions," said Hira.

-- 5. PAY OFF YOUR CREDIT CARDS.

After eliminating your card debt, use only one card and pay off the balance monthly. Lingering credit card balances will only continue to chip away at your potential retirement income.
Rick Kahler, a fee-only financial planner in Rapid City, S.D., advocates being even tougher on yourself and cutting up all cards: "If a person is a chronic overspender and is unwilling to give up all their cards, saying, 'I'll just keep one for emergencies,' it doesn't work any better than an alcoholic giving up everything in their liquor cabinet except the bottle of Jack Daniels, just in case friends come over."

-- 6. WORK TOWARD SAVING ENOUGH TO FINANCE A YEAR OF RETIREMENT.

Those in or near retirement may need to tap an emergency fund to avoid drawing down their retirement savings earlier than planned in a distressed market.
Certified financial planner R. Gene Stout, director of the financial planning program at Central Michigan University, says emergency funds in the "red zone" near the start of retirement -- the last five years before retirement and the first five years of retirement -- should be large enough to last at least a year. This strategy avoids the need to liquidate a retirement portfolio still heavy on equities in a distressed market, he says, and provides more years of portfolio growth later in retirement. "The probability of not running out of money in retirement is dramatically improved."

-- 7. REBALANCE YOUR PORTFOLIO.

Check to see if you should rebalance your portfolio to make sure your asset allocation is in line with your investment goals. If you're a traditional buy-and-hold investor, the percentage of stocks in your portfolio will be at a low at the market bottom, leaving you poorly positioned to benefit from a recovery.
Bill Reichenstein, a finance professor at Baylor University, advises keeping stocks at close to a set percentage of your portfolio that reflects your risk tolerance through thick and thin; for example, 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds: "A fixed-weight strategy helps you overcome inertia and forces you to buy stocks after bear markets and sell stocks after bull markets."

-- 8. IF RETIRED, SPEND NO MORE THAN 4 OR 5 PERCENT OF YOUR HOLDINGS.

Financial advisers have traditionally counseled spending no more than 4 percent of your savings in the first year of retirement, then in subsequent years increasing the dollar amount of that initial withdrawal by the rate of inflation. This strategy is deemed to give a retirement portfolio a very high probability of lasting for a 30-year retirement.
The so-called 4 percent withdrawal rule is only a guideline, however. When determining an appropriate withdrawal rate you'll want to factor in your age and health, recognizing that a spike in inflation or investment losses can significantly impact the income generated by your retirement accounts.

David Hefty, a certified financial planner in Auburn, Ind., says retirees should spend no more than 5 percent of their Dec. 31, 2008, balance during 2009 -- or 4 percent, even better.

-- 9. UPDATE YOUR WILL.

Make sure your will is updated and that the correct beneficiaries are named on all documents, including insurance policies, IRAs and pensions. If you don't have a will, make an appointment with an attorney.
"This may not sound like retirement advice, but it is: No will, or a badly drawn will, can destroy your spouse's retirement," said Michael Kresh, a certified financial planner and president of M.D. Kresh Financial Services Inc. in Islandia, N.Y. "And you'd be amazed at how many ex-spouses and former best friends show up as beneficiaries."

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Almost every forex broker offers a free practice account to prospective clients; all you need to do is sign up for one on the broker’s Web site. Practice accounts are funded with “virtual” money, so you’re able to make trades with no real money at stake and gain experience in how margin trading works.

Practice accounts give you a great chance to experience the forex market. You can see how prices change at different times of the day, how various currency pairs may differ from each other, and how the forex market reacts to new information when major news and economic data is released. You also can start trading in real market conditions without any fear of losing money, experiment with different trading strategies to see how they work, gain experience using different orders and managing open positions, improve your understanding of how margin trading and leverage work, and start analyzing charts and following technical indicators.

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Foreign Exchange Education Center

The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. For example, the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th, 2003 was 1.0857. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date, he would have paid 1085.70 U.S. dollars. One year later, the Forex rate was 1.2083, which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U.S. dollar.

The investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208.30 dollars. Therefore, the investor would have USD 122.60 more than what he had started one year earlier. However, to know if the investor made a good investment, one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. At the very minimum, the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U.S. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default, i.e. the U.S. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation.

When trading currencies, trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling. If the currency you are buying does increase in value, you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit. An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position.
However, it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.

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Japanese Yen Pulls Back Across the Majors as Volatility Cools

Japanese Yen Pulls Back Across the Majors as Volatility Cools, Industrial Production Expected to Fall by Record

he Japanese yen slipped lower against the US dollar and euro on Tuesday, but fell the most against the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, which were actually some of the strongest currencies in the forex markets. Given the lower volumes associated with holiday trading, as well as a significant drop in financial market volatility as indicated by declines in the CBOE’s VIX volatility index over the past month or so, much of the fuel behind the Japanese yen’s past gains have been eliminated. This is surely comforting to the Bank of Japan, as the appreciation of the currency has been extremely detrimental for the Japanese economy. However, this does not mean that Japan will not attempt to intervene in the currency markets, as the yen remains historically high. Indeed, if there is a good time for the country to step in to physically drive the currency down, this may be it.

Looking ahead, the Japanese economy fell into recession during Q2 and Q3 of 2008, and upcoming data is likely to indicate that it extended into Q4 as well. Industrial production for the month of November is forecasted to fall by 6.8 percent, bringing the annual measure down to a record low of -15.0 percent. Manufacturers are feeling the impact of a slowing in domestic demand, as well as foreign demand, which has only been exacerbated by the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen. Individual economic releases don’t tend to have a huge impact on the Japanese yen, but this is still an indicator that may be worth watching.

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How to Trade And Win From Risk Aversion in 2009?

In 2008, a perfect storm hit the world financial markets, flooding hundreds of firms to the level of bankruptcy and forcing many investors to liquidate their leveraged positions.

Many were quick to blame Wall Street, but only history will tell what was the real cause behind such a terrible year from an economic stand point. The truth is that the biggest housing and credit bubble in history continues to threat the entire global financial system and the once resilient global economy is slowly succumbing to tight credit conditions. In fact, I expect more pain in 2009, possibly triggered by a second wave de-leveraging in the financial sector and by more payment defaults in the U.S. mortgage sector.

Having said that, I expect risk aversion to dictate most of next year’s price action in the currency market which will probably help lower yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and safe-heaven currencies like the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, with the global economy slowing down is reasonable to think that the demand for commodities will also begin to slow down which could make the Australian and the Canadian Dollars very vulnerable going forward. I have been short AUD/JPY since the beginning of October 2008 and I expect the Australian dollar to fall to 50 yen in the first half of 2009.

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Canada Offers $3.29 Billion Auto Bailout

Canada offers $3.29 billion bailout to Canadian subsidiaries of US automakers

The federal and Ontario governments will provide the Canadian subsidiaries of the Detroit Three automakers with 4 billion Canadian dollars ($3.29 billion) in emergency loans, the prime minister said Saturday.
The announcement follows a pledge Friday by U.S. President George W. Bush to offer $17.4 billion in emergency loans to General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Canada's bailout plan, the equivalent of 20 percent of the U.S. aid package, will help keep the plants afloat while the automakers restructure their businesses to retain one the country's most important economic sectors.

"We cannot afford, in the United States or Canada, the catastrophic short-term collapse of the Big Three automakers. The U.S. has signaled that they are not going to allow these companies to fail, and we will do our share of the North American package to see that this doesn't happen either," said Harper speaking at a news conference in Toronto.
Canada's automotive industry represents 14 percent of the country's manufacturing output, 23 percent of manufactured exports, and directly employs more than 150,000 Canadians. The country's largest industry within the manufacturing sector, it has been suffering from its slowest sales in 26 years and dwindling operating cash.
Ontario has agreed to provide 1.3 billion Canadian dollars ($1.07 billion) of the total since the province alone employs about 400,000 auto sector workers -- both directly and indirectly -- and the industry is the mainstay of about 12 Ontario communities.

"In Ontario, we've got thousands of people and their families who rely on the auto industry to be on firm ground, so they can put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads. ... No state or province employs more workers, and we're not going to give that up," said Premier Dalton McGuinty, speaking alongside Harper Saturday.
The Canadian plan will provide General Motors Canada with loans of up to 3 billion Canadian dollars ($2.47 billion) and Chrysler Canada will receive up to 1 billion Canadian dollars ($823 million). The companies will get the money in three installments, with the first portion coming Dec. 29.
"The support announced today sends a significant signal of stability in the face of the economic and credit challenges faced by Canada's auto sector," said Arturo Elias, president of GM Canada.
Chrysler Canada said the funds will ensure it has enough money to continue its restructuring, and thanked the governments for their understanding of the situation and their swift reaction.

Ford Motor Company Canada did not ask for any emergency loans, just a line of credit to draw upon if required. Its parent company in the U.S. says it doesn't need any government cash now but would be badly damaged if one or both of the other U.S. automakers went under.
Harper and McGuinty stressed that the government will not be handing over blank checks, saying that all stakeholders will be expected to make adjustments to reduce structural costs.
"Canadian taxpayers expect their money will be used to restructure and renew the automotive industry in this country," said Harper. "They expect all stakeholders to come to the table and work together towards sustainable long-term solutions to maintain our current production share of the North American market."
Harper's statement was applauded by Canadian Auto Workers President Ken Lewenza, who said the union was willing to work with the automakers to protect jobs.

"This will ensure that the Canadian industry is protected and the numerous investments governments have made over the years will continue to benefit our communities. This is a very sound decision on the part of both governments," said Lewenza, who has been lobbying the government to develop an aid package as soon as possible.
Harper also announced two additional steps the federal government will take to support the overall competitiveness of the auto industry. Automotive suppliers will have greater access to accounts receivable insurance through Export Development Canada to compensate for the reduced availability of credit. A new facility will also be created to support access to credit for consumers to improve the accessibility of car loans and dealer financing.
Ford Canada said in a statement Saturday that it welcomes the government's plan to support the auto credit market because "Canadian consumers deserve access to affordable loans and leases when shopping for a new vehicle."

Similar to the U.S. auto bailout package, the Canadian aid package comes with strings attached, including a request that parts suppliers get the money they are owed, that borrowers accept limits on executive compensation, and that they provide the government with warrants for nonvoting stock.
McGuinty warned that the money will only be delivered after auto companies agree to meet conditions set by the federal and Ontario governments.
"Those conditions include limits on executive compensations. The loans will only stay in place beyond March 31, 2009 if our governments are satisfied there are solid restructuring plans in place and under way," said McGuinty.

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Santa Gets Firsthand Look at Consumer Cutbacks

Santa says economic woes evident among holiday shoppers in the most troubled housing markets

Robert Ecker was bored with retirement, so he went back to work as a housing appraiser in Stockton, Calif. He trained four other appraisers during the real estate boom -- all of them are now out of the business.
"Since the real estate market closed down, I grew a beard and now I'm doing this," said Ecker, dressed in the trademark red suit with white trim.
"The older kids are asking for clothes now, rather than gifts," he said. "Most of them are asking for one gift."
From Stockton to Miami, from ritzy Las Vegas to gritty Detroit, cities with the worst real estate markets led the U.S. economy into recession. Skidding home prices and soaring foreclosures have magnified the broader woes of unemployment, stock market turmoil and hard-to-get loans. Holiday shoppers are making a list, checking it twice, and then scratching off the nonessentials.

"I used to buy what I need and what I like: a lot of shoes, clothes in general -- I love clothes," said Stephanie Guzman, who works at the Wireless Image kiosk at the Weberstown mall near Stockton. "I only buy what I need now -- I don't have money."
Last Friday, the Commerce Department said retail sales fell by almost 2 percent in November. It was the fifth month in a row -- a period of weakness never before seen on the government's retail sales records.
Stockton resident Debbie Rooker is shopping, but for more practical gifts this year.

"Less electronics and more clothing," said Rooker, whose family lives on her husband's pension and savings from his career as a firefighter. "We got a rocking chair for one daughter and a frying pan -- a nice one -- for a son."
At the Westland Mall in Hialeah, Fla., northwest of Miami, Katherine Cuevas and her husband run two kiosks, one selling perfume and cologne, the other hawking child's gifts like toy laser guns and fire engines.
Business is off 40 percent from last year, and the Cuevases have had to let go one of their employees and put in longer hours themselves.
"If you can't pay your mortgage on time, how are you going to spend your money on perfume? They'll make one perfume bottle last a year," said Katherine, 36.

Consumer cutbacks are affecting stores of all sizes this year. Among the early casualties: Sharper Image, Linens 'N Things and Circuit City, which are all in some stage of bankruptcy.
At the Dolphin Mall in the Miami area, general manager Pete Marrero says sales at the outlet stores have been buoyed by international visitors, but home goods may fall short of expectations.
One reason is that housewares retailer Linens 'N Things is closing its store there.
"This is sad to watch," says George Schafer, a retiree who sits in front of Linens 'N Things as he waits for his wife to plumb the store's massive discounts.
A few miles east in Coral Gables, Fla., the sidewalks of swanky Miracle Mile look like bowling lanes -- wide and empty. Lined with restaurants and shops that sell expensive jewelry and apparel, Miracle Mile has at least six store vacancies, including a Qdoba Mexican Grill and what once was an upscale furniture store.

Yaime Diaz, manager of a store that sells multi-pocketed Cuban-style shirts known as "guayaberas," says she's noticed that foot traffic is down on Miracle Mile.
"It's just not the same as last year," she says, surrounded by shirts colored blue, yellow and red -- hues that contrast with the drab wooden plywood covering the windows of the shuttered furniture store just steps away.
One of the few cities with more foreclosures than Miami is Las Vegas. In the suburb of Henderson, a La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries store near the edge of a large shopping mall was empty on a Sunday afternoon, though the mall itself was fairly busy.
La-Z-Boy announced last month it would close some 15 to 20 stores and cut about 850 jobs. Store manager Kevin Durney said his financing department was turning down some customers looking to borrow money to pay for furniture who would have qualified with the same credit score last year.

"The spendable income isn't there," Durney said. "It's a little harder for (shoppers) to make decisions."
Economic worries certainly have engulfed Detroit and its suburbs, as the Big Three automakers seek to stave off the Grinch by asking for a government bailout of their industry.
In Harper Woods, Mich., the watches and belt buckles at Buckles Unlimited sparkle like ornaments on a Christmas tree. Owner Adam Naseh says he used to sell 100 belt buckles a day, but now is selling 20 or 30.

"People are basically afraid of investing, of spending money," he said.
The housing market, the economy, the auto industry -- the list is enough to stress out any merchant. And the shoppers are even more harried. Just ask the Santa Claus who has worked a Detroit-area mall for the past five years.

"The kids are fine," he said, sipping coffee in full Santa gear. "The parents are nuts."
Associated Press Writers Donald Thompson in Stockton, Calif., Oskar Garcia in Las Vegas and Ben Leubsdorf in Michigan contributed to this report.

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